Last night (11/1/16), I was watching the MSNBC TV show, “The Last Word,” hosted by Lawrence O’Donnell.
During the show, it was shared that Moody Analytics, which has always accurately predicted presidential elections outcomes, has Hillary Clinton becoming the U.S. Madam President by 332 electoral votes on November 8.
There was also a guest, Tom Bornier of TargetSmart and William & Mary College, who is stating, that based on the pattern of Florida’s early voting, his company is forecasting that Hillary Clinton will win Florida on November 8 by 8 points.
Newsmax published what was said on “The Last Word” on 11/1/16 and here is what the report is claiming:
Here are the results:
Clinton 48 percent.
Trump 40 percent.
“Other polls have shown a tighter race, with election-watchers, including Fox News, moving Florida from leans Democrat to toss-up in recent days.”
“But TargetSmart’s Tom Bonier told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell on Tuesday night his firm’s methodology is more accurate because his pollsters call a random sample of the actual 3.6 million voters who already have cast early ballots and ask them how they cast their ballots, as well as obtain demographic data about them.”
“We can construct a sample that’s perfectly representative of the people who’ve voted so far,” Bonier said.”
“Much of Clinton’s rise in support comes from registered Republicans who abandoned the party’s nominee Donald Trump, according to the poll.”
“Clinton has won 28 percent of registered Republicans, while Trump has been able to pick up only 6 percent or registered Democrats, he said.”
“Clinton’s 8 percent lead is a combination of early voters and those who identify as likely voters, but when counting only those who have already cast votes in person or by mail, Clinton leads 17 points, 55-38 percent.”
“Trump’s former rival for the GOP nomination, Sen. Marco Rubio, however is leading Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, according to the poll:
Rubio: 49 percent.
Murphy: 43 percent.
“Full results of the poll are to be released Wednesday. No margin of error is calculated because the poll used a combined internet/phone survey method.”
On 11/1/16 CNN Money, Heather Long is reporting the following about the Moody Analytics prognosis:
“A model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980 is forecasting a big victory for Hillary Clinton.”
“Clinton is expected to get 332 electoral votes, while Trump is predicted to get just 206, according to the Moody’s Analytics model, which is based on three economic and three political factors.”
“But here’s what really tips the model heavily toward Clinton: Cheap gas and President Obama’s high approval ratings.”
“Even those who don’t have a car typically pass a gas station and see prices dropping or falling of a daily basis,” writes Dan White, a senior economist at Moody’s, who worked on the model for the 2016 election.”
“Gas prices are down, while American incomes and home prices have been rising. At the end of the day, that means a lot of people are better off than they were a few years ago.”
“The other deciding factor this year is President Obama. Many see Clinton as an extension of President Obama’s policies. Right now, that’s a good thing. His approval rating has surged this year to 55%.”
“Historically, no incumbent president since Ronald Reagan in 1988 has had a surge anywhere close to (Obama’s) magnitude in their eighth year in office,” notes White.”
“The economy and Obama’s rising popularity are likely to make the difference to those coveted few undecided voters, according to the Moody’s model.
MY THOUGHTS: I live in Florida and I have been a registered republican voter who acts more like a Colin Powell republican, who will do the necessary research to vote for the best qualified candidate for the most powerful job in the country. I have become disenchanted with the republican party and their amoral support of their candidate, Donald Trump who by comparison, raises the democrat’s candidate, Hillary Clinton to the status bordering on sainthood.
In 2016, I have parted ways with the republican party and am now an “Independent” voter who as a “Nasty” woman has proudly voted for Hillary Clinton to become our First Lady President.
No, I did not hold my nose. The same type of conservative republicans who have been spouting talking points for 8 years, based in part to racist views, along the lines that President Barack Obama is a Muslim who is not a U.S. citizen because he was really born in Kenya instead of Hawaii, are of the same ilk as the ones who for 40 years have been describing Hillary Clinton, as a congenital liar who has gotten away with criminal activities and who should be doing jail time. Yes, some of this mantra is from those who suffer from sexism.
This analysis does not mean that both of these officials do not have their weaknesses and shortcomings and/ or that they have not made mistakes based on reality, but it reflects that they are human. They along with their esteemed predecessors who with their own failings, and the demeanor typical of politicians, were all subject to human error. They are not demonic frauds who are out to ruin our country as some would like to define them.
For too many years, the American public have been held hostage to the current sate of political divisiveness to were those of a particular party feel obliged to demonize the U.S. president who is of the opposing party. This rancor has escalated to were the U.S. congress is no longer working primarily for the tax paying Americans but for the goal of obstructionism, itself. This is why the U.S. congress has a disapproval rating of over 73% according to the latest “Real Clear Politics data.
What I studied, was how Hillary Clinton functioned during her 8 years as the U.S. New York senator while the presidency was held by the opposing party. This is where she shined, crossing the aisle frequently to push laws forward which benefited her constituents and the American peoples. Her name is on about 400 pieces of legislation. She received high marks from both sides of the aisle; she won her second term by about 67%; and she left the senate with a favorability rating of about 66%. When I compared this performance with her opponent being totally unqualified for this job, my decision was a “no brainer.”
Gronda Morin 
Gronda, good post. I am not quite as confident as Moody’s, but I do hope the ground game, which you are a part, is making a difference. Plus, while Clinton is imperfect, Trump is a person of little character and people see that. I view the latest email batch as a continuation of a story that has been put to bed. What has not been brought out into the mainstream is Trump’s willful and consistent violation of request for emails from judges in court cases, his 75 pending lawsuits including three class actions ones against Trump U and the judicial conference in December on the alleged rape of a thirteen year old.
I am knocking on wood hoping these predictions bear out. Keith
LikeLiked by 1 person
I agree with EVERYTHING Keith has said. Plus, can we add in the new story regarding his ties to a certain mob figure, which he has denied knowing? Honestly! I don’t understand how people can crucify Clinton for lying, while holding up Trump as a paragon of honesty.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Kim,
You both are right. Hillary Clinton has her email controversy but DT has a list of issues a mile long which are not getting sufficient media scrutiny.
I already posted the list as a response to Keith. There is no comparison between the two candidates.
Hugs, Gronda
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Keith,
You are spot on!
It looks like FBI Director Comey’s letter is not having an undue influence on voting especially with the FBI spontaneously and publicly divulging FBI investigative information about the 2001 Bill Clinton pardon of Marc Rich. The FBI is looking like the keystone cops.
I found the comparison of Clinton’s issues v that of DT helpful. The source is the “Fifth Column” at kstreet607.com. This is what Sheila posted:
Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk.
Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba.
Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud.
Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA.
Clinton emails. Trump doesn’t pay taxes for 20 years.
Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia.
Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US.
Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate.
Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor.
Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia’s Crimea occupation.
Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria.
Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination.
Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times.
Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics.
Clinton emails. Trump admitting sexual assault.
Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud.
Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation.
Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs.
Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists.
Clinton emails. Trump questions judge’s integrity because of parent’s heritage.
Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal.
Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane.
Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse.
Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms Universe for being overweight.
Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am.
Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo.
Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used.
Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them.
Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger.
Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists.
Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions.
Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people.
Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press.
Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax.
Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un’s strong leadership.
Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate.
Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate noncitizen hundreds of times over 7 years.
Ciao, Gronda
LikeLike
Gronda, a long list indeed. I was frustrated with one of my favorite news sources, PBS Newshour, who did a piece on things we did not know about the candidates. They were silent on Trump’s deleting emails to evade supplying them per court order and the pending lawsuits noted above, neither of which are common knowledge. So, I shared my recent email with them which echoes my current post. Thanks again, Keith
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Keith,
Thanks for taking this step. We all need to do this more often.
I have emailed several news outlets on this issue including the NY Times and the Washington Post.
Ciao, Gronda
LikeLike
You are welcome. I agree we need more folks doing this. Kelly Anne Conway was on The View and did not ask her about his deletion of emails, pending court cases, etc. We are giving this man a hall pass, if the mainstream media does not pick up legitimate stories that question this man’s character.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hi Keith, I really believe that Trump just doesn’t care anymore. He has been fleecing people and ignoring court orders practically his entire adult life.
I think he feels that if he wins the presidency he will be granted immunity to many if not ALL his pending cases. (The law sux since it’s only in favor of the top 3 per cent money makers in this country…but I digress)…
Trump may not win the election but he’s fighting like a mad man to try and win. It’s his only way out. If he wins I wouldn’t be surprised if Congress passes laws that will protect him in several of his cases.
This is way longer than I anticipated. Thanks for your patience.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Kstreet607, I agree with your comment about Trump not caring. In his view, he is not running for President, he is running for King. If he wins, I could see him thumbing his noise at the judicial . If people want to see what a Trump presidency would look like, just check out Mr. Duterte in the Philippines. Crack down (and murder) of drug addicts and pusher, offending allies and showing little loyalty to relationships. Keith
LikeLiked by 1 person
[…] GRONDA MORIN […]
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Sheila,
Thanks a million for your support and for this reblog.
Yes, We who have been on pins and needles regarding the possibility of a DT victory could use some good news especially after FBI Director Comey’s October Surprise letter.
Again, thanks and hugs, Gronda
LikeLike
Gronda this is the best news EVER!!! Florida is a pivotal state to win…a must win state in order to win the election! Thanks for the information.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Sheila, Let’s pray that this pollster is right. It appears credible to me. Oddly enough, Moody’s Analytics has an outstanding record.
As for Newsmax, I used this source as a reference because it was the only blog to report this news when I posted this material.
Hugs, Gronda
LikeLike
Oh…and pay no attention to the “man behind the curtain…” (Newsmax) I have yet to hear or see an honest Right Wing broadcast…ever!
LikeLiked by 1 person
As an Englishman who used to live in Washington DC for 13 years, I am dismayed
how far the Republican party has swerved to the right in the last 15 years.
The party grandees have no one to blame but themselves for fostering all this hatred.
Currently, the Senate and Congress are too busy obstructing the President rather than offering a better alternative. Though Hillary may become President, nothing will change unless the American public also has a clear out of all senators and congressmen up for re-election. The lobbying laws need a drastic overhaul to cut down interference of vested interests. Every presidential election the media are guilty of focusing too much on the White House and not enough to shine a spotlight on the Rats in Congress. Lincoln must be spinning in his grave.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Kevin Ashton,
Welcome!! You have an excellent feel for what is going on in the states.
Until this year, I had been a registered republican but a few of us republican females have become “Nasty Women” for Hillary Clinton.
On this side of the Atlantic, some popular republican pundits like Nicole Wallace and Ana Navarro have been much more courageous than many of their male counterparts in voicing their antipathy towards Donald Trump.
The republican party establishment have been complicit by not speaking out against right wing TV, radio, bloggers who have been spreading hate rhetoric like President Obama is a Muslim who was born in Kenya. The final result of this was the nomination of Donald Trump. This is really a sad spectacle to observe. Too many party supporters have sold their soul for votes.
When this election season is over there will be a lot of self evaluating about how all this happened.
Meanwhile, I am speculating that “Nasty Women” along with Hispanics, our Black brothers and sisters, those of the LGBTQ community, Muslims and other minority members will carry the day on November 8, 2016 by voting for Hillary Clinton to become Madam President and that the U.S. senate will now have a majority of democrats.
We will all be grateful when this is over.
Thanks for stopping by, Gronda
LikeLike