Most of the media savvy professional political pundits have been stating that the October 1st Vice Presidential debate between the democrat party’s vice-presidential nominee, Minnesota’s Governor Tim Walz and the GOP MAGA US Senator JD Vance from Ohio resulted in a tie (50-50) or they gave the win to JD Vance by 1 or 2 points. Neither candidate truly scored an outright win.

But I disagree with the political pros giving their take on TV and in print about the debate. I suspect that Governor Walz was tasked to appeal to those voters who claim to be undecided. Based on this objective, he won the debate bigtime.

As per a Politico report, “Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge… As per CNN, “65% majority of debate watchers now say Walz is qualified to serve as president.” In short Mr. Walz hit a home run with independent voters.

As per an Oct 2nd CNN report Mr. Walz hit the ball out of the park with an increase in his favorability numbers. Ariel Edwards-Levy and Jennifer Agiesta authored, “CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance:”

Excerpts:

“Following the debate, 59% of debate watchers said they had a favorable view of Walz, with just 22% viewing him unfavorably – an improvement from his already positive numbers among the same voters pre-debate (46% favorable, 32% unfavorable). Debate watchers came away from the debate with roughly neutral views of Vance: 41% rated him favorably and 44% unfavorably.”

“Among debate watchers, Walz boosted his favorability far more among women than men, while Vance’s gains were about the same among voters of both genders. About 1 in 5 Trump supporters (21%) who tuned in now say they have a favorable view of Walz, while Vance’s favorability rating with Harris’ supporters remains at just 8%.”

“In a CNN poll of all Americans taken prior to the debate, views of Walz were narrowly above water, with 36% of voters viewing him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and a sizable 33% saying they hadn’t heard of him or had no opinion of him. By contrast, views of Vance tilted negative, with 30% of registered voters rating him favorably, 42% unfavorably, and 27% offering no opinion.”

“A 65% majority of debate watchers now say Walz is qualified to serve as president if necessary, with 58% saying the same of Vance. Prior to the debate, 62% of the same voters thought Walz was qualified to assume the presidency if needed and 50% that Vance was qualified to do so.”

CBS numbers:

NYT did some fact-checking prior to debate…

As per the October 1, 2024 New York Times by Linda Qiu, “Fact-Checking Vance and Walz on the Campaign Trail:”

Excerpts:

“Mr. Vance has falsely described Haitian migrants’ immigration status and their impact on crime.”

“The 20,000 Haitian migrants who come to Springfield are part of hundreds of thousands of Haitian migrants, part of 25 million illegal aliens in this country. Now, when the media says that people are here legally, here’s what they mean. That Kamala Harris has granted mass amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. Now, I happen to think that what Kamala Harris has done is not just wrong, it is illegal.”
— Mr. Vance in a rally in Pennsylvania in September

“Murders are up by 81 percent because of what Kamala Harris has allowed to happen to this small community.”
— Mr. Vance in an CNN interview in September

“False. Questioned over baseless claims that he and Mr. Trump have made about Haitian migrants in an Ohio city, Mr. Vance has instead questioned their legal status and supposed impact on crime in the city.”

“Some 12,000 to 20,000 Haitians live in Springfield, Ohio, according to officials. Most are there legally, including some longtime residents with green cards. Others have been granted temporary protected status, and others entered the country through a program known as humanitarian parole. But contrary to Mr. Vance’s claims, neither of those routes to being in Springfield is illegal.”

“A 1990 law gave the executive branch the authority to give migrants from certain countries facing unrest or environmental disaster temporary protected status, shielding them from deportation and providing temporary work authorization.”

“The Trump administration terminated the designation for Haiti and 5 other countries — effectively ending it for 98 percent of people who held the status at the time — but extended it for 4 others. The Biden administration rescinded those terminations and added a handful of other countries, including Ukraine and Venezuela. As of March, more than 800,000 people from 16 countries were protected under the designation.”

“Similarly, a 1952 immigration law has allowed the executive branch to “parole into the United States temporarily” migrants for emergency reasons, and most presidential administrations since then have issued parole orders. A judge in March upheld the Biden administration’s use of the program to permit the entry of hundreds of thousands of citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, after Texas and Republican-led states sued to block it.”

“And the 81 percent figure Mr. Vance mentions is misleading; it refers to an increase from five homicides in Springfield in 2021 to nine murders in 2023, according to an Ohio crime dashboard. But that was cherry-picked, and more expansive data shows no clear pattern in the annual number of homicides in Springfield. The figure has generally remained low and hovered between zero and 13 over the past 4 decades.”

“With such small numbers, any variation can produce seemingly large statistical changes when analyzed. So by Mr. Vance’s logic, homicides increased 160 percent in Springfield during the first half of Mr. Trump’s term — even though the actual numbers went from five in 2016 to 13 in 2018.”

“He falsely portrayed Mr. Trump as a defender of the Affordable Care Act and wrongly claimed a lack of economic consensus over tariffs.”

What Was Said…

“He could’ve destroyed the program, or he could actually build upon it and make it better so that Americans didn’t lose a lot of health care. He chose to build upon a plan even though it came from his Democratic predecessor.”
— Mr. Vance in an NBC interview in September

“False. Even after the Senate tried and failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, the Trump administration continued to take actions that weakened the health care law. Enrollment also declined under the Trump administration, contrary to Mr. Vance’s claim that Americans did not lose health care.”

“The New York Times has previously detailed several ways in which the Trump administration undermined the Affordable Care Act. Those include limiting outreach and advertising, allowing the sale of cheaper plans with fewer benefits and reducing subsidies to insurance companies for low-income enrollees.”

“The Trump administration also said it would stop defending crucial parts of the health care law in court in 2018, and said it believed that the law was unconstitutional in 2019.”

“Under the Trump administration, the number of enrollees declined to 11.4 million in 2020, from 12.7 million in 2016.”

What Was Said…

“I think economists really disagree about the effects of tariffs.”
— Mr. Vance in an NBC interview in August

“False. There’s broad agreement among economists about the effect of tariffs.”

“In 30 years of surveys to thousands of economists belonging to the American Economics Association, including most recently in 2021, 95 percent of respondents have repeatedly agreed that tariffs “generally reduce economic welfare.”

“And 95 percent of economists surveyed by the University of Chicago in September agreed that a substantial portion of the tariffs’ costs are “borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs, through price increases.”

“A 2022 assessment of existing research in the Annual Review of Economics on the impact of Mr. Trump’s trade war with China concluded that American “consumers of imported goods have borne the brunt of the tariffs through higher prices, and that the trade war has lowered aggregate real income in both the US and China.”

This post was updated on 10/2/2024.