Could the Democrats VP Kamala Harris and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Prevail in Florida?

Nate Silver, the guru of polling in the game of predicting election winners, gives the democrats a 21% chance of prevailing in the state. I, who live in the state give the democrat candidates better odds because of initiatives like there being a ballot referendum against Florida’s strict abortion laws, and another one for making marijuana possession for up to 3 ounces, legal for individuals over 21. Then there’s voters’ discontent over housing shortages, high rent prices, inflation due in part to highest property insurance premiums in the country, etc. Finally, as many Floridians are recovering from Hurricane Helene, they are in fear of facing another storm, due in part to living in a state led by GOP MAGA climate change deniers.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the Florida vote, she’ll win 30 electoral college votes, which makes it, game over, checkmate, and touchdown. It’s my opinion that if she prevails in Florida, she also wins the electoral college vote count.

If Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell wins the US Senate seat against the GOP MAGA Senator Rick Scott, then there’s a real possibility of democrats maintaining a majority position in the US Senate. A very recent Emerson College poll has her tied with Senator Scott and the Inside Elections poll has her down by one, 45%- 46%.

Yes, the democrat party’s chances of winning the US presidency and a US Senate seat in the State of Florida, is in the miracle category, but I for one, am a believer.

The good news is that the DNC (Democrat National Committee) is donating over $400,000 to bolster the democrats’ chances for winning in Florida during the last 30 days of the US presidential election cycle.

Also, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) — the campaign arm of Senate Democrats — has pledged a multi-million-dollar investment to help Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell beat Rick Scott and flip Florida blue.

As per the July 9, 2024 Axios report by Marina E. Franco,” there’s good news…

“The big picture: Since 2017, there’s been an exodus of Puerto Ricans from the island, and they’ve moved to states like North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Florida, where they are the second largest Latino subgroup after Cuban Americans. Many are young, averaging 30 years old, per estimates.”

“Stateside, Puerto Ricans are eligible to vote for president (which they can’t do on the island, as it isn’t part of the electoral college).”
“Historically, Puerto Rican voters in the mainland have voted for the Democratic Party — about 68% of those living in Florida supported President Biden in 2020, per exit polls.”

Overall, there’re 15 counties with large Latino registered voter populations, accounting for roughly 41% of the state’s increase in Latino registered voters since 2016. Many of these counties are in Central Florida, where Puerto Ricans make up the largest Latino origin population, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.

Puerto Ricans are about 27% of the total Latino population in Florida. Those who’re registered to vote still remember how the GOP MAGA ex-president deliberately delayed the sending of funds to Puerto Rico that was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017.

See: New probe confirms Trump officials blocked Puerto Rico from receiving hurricane aid/ NBC News/ 2021

Another interesting tidbit is that there’re are 500,000 Haitians living in Florida who aren’t happy with the GOP MAGA ex-president’s recent cruel, incendiary, false rhetoric about Haitians eating pets in Springfield, Ohio and they have a history of voting for Democrats.

Karma can come back to bite the GOP MAGA ex-president in a big, surprising way.

Another piece of good news is the announcement by a well-known longtime power player in in Republican politics, in that the Floridian, Cuban-American Al Cárdenas, has announced that he’s voting for the democrat Harris-Walz ticket.

As per a 2022 Florida Politics article, Al Cardenas served under former President Ronald Reagan. After reaching the Executive Committee of the national party — he’s retiring from the lobbying firm he built into one of the state’s Top 10 firms.

“But don’t expect to stop hearing from Al Cárdenas, who’s been rated the “best in the business” for lobbying, according to The Hill. He also previously served as co-chair of the 2004 Bush-Cheney Florida Campaign and was a key force propelling the Institute of Politics’ 2020 founding at Florida State University.”

In the Orlando area, a Democrat won a special election for a state House seat by highlighting property insurance, flipping a district that the GOP MAGA Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida easily won in 2022.

A few days ago, former President Barack Obama announced his support for democrat US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida for the US Senate seat. (Here’s the ad.)

Watch the latest campaign ad by Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida here.

Ana Navarro and Al Cardenas

As per the October 3rd Silver Bulletin analysis by Eli McKown-Dawson, “Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high:”

Excerpts:

The state of the race in the Sunshine State

“As of today, our model gives Kamala Harris a 21 percent chance of winning Florida’s 30 electoral votes. Now, a one-in-five chance isn’t bad, but it isn’t great either. For perspective, this scenario is about as likely as Harris winning Alaska. So, let’s be clear: Harris is the underdog here. There are however a few things that make the race more interesting than the 21 percent win probability would imply. “

“First, the Florida polls have slowly tightened since Harris entered the race. On the day our Harris-Trump model launched, Trump led by a 7-point margin in the state. Now? He only leads by 3.3 points. Harris has gotten some good individual polls recently too. A Victory Insights poll had her down by 2 points, and she trailed by 1 point a Bullfinch Group poll. Are these particularly high-quality pollsters? No. And she’s had some bad polls too. She trailed by 4 points in this Public Policy Polling survey — a firm that typically leans towards Democrats, and the poll was for a partisan client.”

“Trailing by around three and a half points isn’t great but it’s a lot better than trailing by 7 points. At this point, a normal sized polling error that favors Harris could result in a Democratic victory. Now, it’s important to note that the model projects Trump to win the state by 3.7 points, slightly more than his 3.3-point margin in the polling average. In other words, it doesn’t totally buy the polls and expects Trump to do better than what they currently indicate.”

“What else makes the Florida race interesting? Well, we can think of 30 things: it’s worth 30 electoral votes. That’s twice as many as Michigan and more than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin combined. It’s also why our model thinks Florida is the 7th-likeliest tipping point state — ahead of states like Nevada where the race is much more even but the number of electoral votes is smaller.”

Trump Vs. Harris: Nate Silver Says Florida Isn’t A Lost Cause For Democrats

Note: This blog was last updated on October 9, 2024.