It is my strong contention that “Nasty Women,” and a higher turnout of Hispanics, along with those of the LGBTQ community, our Black brothers and sisters, Muslims, undocumented immigrants’ family members and other minority peoples are going en masse to challenge pollsters by voting for Hillary Clinton by much larger numbers than predicted.
One example, which bolsters my gut feelings has to do with Florida’s early voting results, analyzed by TargetSmart with William Mary College. The survey evaluation done, indicates that 28% of registered republicans have crossed over to vote for Hillary Clinton. I am speculating that the majority of these republican voters are women.
In less than a week, we will know whether my gut instincts are outperforming the latest “Real Clear Politics Polls which have the race tightening in some of the toss up states including Florida. Of course, this makes for exciting news reports.
On the 11/3/16 Washington Post, the authors, James Hohmann with Breanne Deppisch penned their report, ” College-educated white women are Hillary Clinton’s firewall.”
“THE BIG IDEA: One in five voters in 2012 were college-educated white women. Mitt Romney won them by 6 points, according to exit polls.”
“Our fresh Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which has Hillary Clinton ahead by just 2 points among all likely voters nationally, finds that Donald Trump is losing college-educated white women by 27 points.”
“If the Republican nominee was anywhere close to Romney’s 52 percent support level among this traditionally Republican-leaning constituency, he would likely win the election. But drilling into the crosstabs of our polling and reviewing credible, state-level data demonstrates how highly unlikely it is that this constituency will waver in the final days. It is one of the reasons that, even though the race has tightened pretty dramatically, Clinton retains a significant structural advantage.”
“A gender gap is nothing new. Democrats tend to perform exceptionally well with unmarried and minority women. A Pew study in July found that there was no difference in candidate support between men and women in 1972 and 1976, but since 1980 women writ large have preferred Democratic presidential candidates by an average of 8 points.””
“Our national tracking polling shows that the race has moved back toward something close to this historic norm. Men prefer Trump by 11 points (51-40) and women prefer Clinton by 11 points (52-41).”
“Clinton is only ahead 11 points among women overall because Trump is running up his margin among white women without college degrees. They favor him by 28 points, 61 percent to 33 percent, despite the dozen women who have now come forward publicly to accuse him of sexual assault.”
“But the preference for Clinton among college-educated, white women matters a great deal because they habitually turn out to vote at higher rates than almost every other group of voters, including less-educated women. So, in an election with lagging enthusiasm, this constituency packs a bigger punch.” chasm among women is getting picked up in several battleground surveys. The Post’s Virginia poll this week, conducted with the Schar School, found Clinton up six points overall. She led by 14 points among white women with a college degree, and Trump was ahead by 39 points among non-college white women.”
“The Marquette Law School poll, released yesterday afternoon, placed Clinton up six points in Wisconsin. Hillary is ahead by 21 points among college-educated white women and two points among non-college white women.”
“It’s just brutal,” said Ted Kanavas, a former Wisconsin GOP state senator who co-chaired Romney’s 2012 campaign in the state and reluctantly supports Trump. “The gender gap is important and very real. It’s been a trashy election. The race that (Trump) ran has made for a trashy election. So we’ve got to acknowledge that, and next time we’ve got to do better.”
“The Trump campaign is trying to make a late play for college-educated white women. His wife, Melania, will give a speech today in the Philadelphia suburbs, her first public address since the Republican National Convention, when she plagiarized Michelle Obama’s 2008 convention speech. The campaign said she will preview “the kind of First Lady she will be.” Meanwhile, Ivanka Trump will make four stops – starting the day in the Detroit suburbs and then flying to New Hampshire for talks in Manchester, Hollis and Nashua. These are suburbs where Donald is underperforming. Lara Trump, Eric’s wife, is traveling around Ohio as part of a “Women’s Tour,” accompanied by two African American women with a following on YouTube (Diamond and Silk), her husband’s executive assistant and former Apprentice star Omarosa.”
“These might not be the best surrogates to woo the kinds of college-educated women Trump needs, but they will probably still be more effective than Jeff Sessions, the Alabama senator who was recently deployed to Iowa to headline a “Women for Trump” event”…
“Clinton has explicitly focused on women in her closing argument. She stumped with Alicia Machado, the former Miss Universe who Trump called “Miss Piggy,” in Florida on Tuesday. She’s on TV with a 60-second spot that features clips of Trump saying that letting women work outside the home is dangerous, that he goes “through the roof” if dinner is not ready when he arrives home and bragging about being able to grab women by their genitals because he is a celebrity. Trump is also seen in the ad talking about going into dressing rooms to look at underage girls as they change.”
— “Many of the final ads in down-ballot races are aimed at female voters. Evan Bayh’s wife Susan, for example, talks to camera in his closing commercial about how the former Indiana senator trying to make a comeback was her “nurse” after she was diagnosed with brain cancer.”
“House Majority PAC, the main Democratic outside group focused on the House, uses the “Access Hollywood” video in several of its closing spots. Hitting the Republican candidate in an open seat just west of Philadelphia, a female narrator says: “He supports Trump even after he was caught bragging about sexually assaulting women. Despite Trump calling women bimbos, dogs, disgusting and fat pigs, (Lloyd) Smucker supports Trump stronger than ever.”
“Vulnerable Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who rescinded her Trump endorsement after the 2005 video emerged, told a New Hampshire radio station yesterday that she would not want her teenage daughter to be alone with either Trump or Bill Clinton. “I wouldn’t want my daughter in the room with any of them,” the senator said.”