A Case Study On PA’s 18th District / How Democrats Insure Their Blue Wave In Nov. 2018 Elections

He can con that 37% of the voters that consist of Evangelicals, the NRA more ardent followers. members in racist groups, closet racists, anti-immigration zealots, conservative Jewish members, folks who cater to these groups. Its no wonder that his base cannot be budged.

But now I see a light at the end of this tunnel. The 7/16/18 Trump-Putin Helsinki summit was a blessing in disguise as it took off the blinders from many Americans as to what is truly going on. As President prevaricated over the question about whether he believed his US Intelligence agencies’ conclusion that Russia attacked the US elections infrastructure in 2016 or Russia’s President Putin’s denials of his treachery, he overplayed his hand.

President Trump will not last. VP Pence will be history.

The coalition of the decent which includes conservative “Never Trumpers,” ex-republicans, recalcitrant republicans, Independents, Democrats, and others like “the Resistance,” the “Women’s March,” “Indivisible,” simply have to stick together and vote for the democratic ticket in the Nov. 2018 elections.

Here’s the problem in a nutshell. The president admires the leadership of President Putin and wishes he could run the USA to be more like Russia.

Most Americans do not share the president’s viewpoint. What he despises, most of us love like the free press, non-politically influenced judicial and law enforcement entities; we welcome diversity, different points of views.

What drives the president and his supporters crazy, most of us believe these same attributes make our country, that shining city on a hill.

We want to be working towards making this a greater country, a place where everyone has a real chance to become the best that they can be. But we advertise our faults and we openly talk about them without having the fear that we’ll be thrown in jail. We are free to criticize our leaders without fear of retribution.

If we were to governed by a President Putin copycat (which we are but it’s a poor copy), there would be a revolution against him. We don’t want to be a part of his kind of governing which may work for Russia, but we reject that style of autocratic style of leadership, outright.

Tweet from The Resistance @ nightlypolitics:

You can support the police while supporting the black lives matter movement. You can be a patriot while respecting the kneeling NFL players. You can support immigrants while wanting a strong border. You cannot support Russia and Putin and call yourself an American

Here’s the rest of the story…

On March 14, 2018, Nathaniel Rakich of the FiveThirtyEight penned the following report, “The Pennsylvania 18th Result Tells Us What Everything Has Been Telling Us For A While”(“We get it! Republicans are in deep trouble.”)

Excerpts:

“Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone ran neck and neck for most of the evening (at one point, they were separated by only 95 votes), and even The Associated Press went to bed without calling the race. As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, Lamb led by 641 votes, or 0.28 percentage points. And he and Democrats had claimed victory.”

Image result for photos of Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone

“The exact margin will likely change, but it’s going to be very difficult for Saccone to make up that deficit. The only votes left to be counted are around 200 absentee ballots in Greene County (expected to be announced on 3/21/18 ) as well as a handful of provisional and overseas ballots, which may take days to finalize. There may not even be 641 ballots left to count.”

“Nor is a recount likely to change the final result. Although it would be pretty easy for Republicans to request a recount should they want one, recounts typically don’t shift election margins by that much. That’s true in Pennsylvania, where most voting is done on electronic touchscreens; a recount would only reveal errors in the small population of paper ballots.”

Image result for images of PA 18TH DISTRICT
“But as we’ve told you from the beginning, for those of us who don’t live in the Pennsylvania 18th, it doesn’t really matter who wins if what you’re mainly interested in is the 2018 midterms. The takeaway for November’s elections will be the same no matter whether Lamb wins by a fraction of a percentage point or Saccone wins by a fraction of a percentage point: Tuesday represented yet another huge Democratic overperformance in a Trump-era special election.”
The Democratic overperformance in Pennsylvania 18

Special elections this cycle, by the constituency’s partisan lean and final vote margin

YEAR DATE SEAT PARTISAN LEAN VOTE MARGIN DEM. SWING
2017 April 4 California 34th† D+69 D+87 +18
April 11 Kansas 4th R+29 R+6 +23
May 25 Montana At-Large R+21 R+6 +16
June 20 Georgia 6th R+9 R+4 +6
June 20 South Carolina 5th R+19 R+3 +16
Nov. 7 Utah 3rd R+35 R+32 +3
Dec. 12 Alabama U.S. Senate R+29 D+2 +31
2018 March 13 Pennsylvania 18th R+21 0* +22

“Partisan lean is the average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.”

† “Primary results used because both general-election candidates were from the same party. Primary included multiple Democratic candidates, and results show vote share for all Democratic candidates combined.”

SOURCE: DAILY KOS ELECTIONS, SECRETARIES OF STATE

“One special election is not enough to draw midterm conclusions from, but when it fits so clearly into an existing pattern, it’s safe to say something’s going on. Counting Tuesday’s result, Democratic candidates in federal special elections have now outperformed the normal partisan leans of their state or district by an average of 17 percentage points. In recent midterm election cycles, that number has tracked closely with the eventual national popular vote for the U.S. House.”

Special elections have tended to predict midterm outcomes

Swing in average special congressional election from weighted presidential lean vs. the national House vote margin in the next midterm since 1994

CYCLE AVERAGE SWING NATIONAL HOUSE MARGIN DIFFERENCE
2014 R+4 R+6 2
2010 R+6 R+7 1
2006 D+15 D+8 7
2002 0 R+5 5
1998 D+1 R+1 2
1994 R+9 R+7 2
Average 3

“The swing compares the district’s Democratic lean in the previous two presidential elections vs. the special election result. The Democratic lean compares the district’s voting patterns to the nation. For each cycle, the previous presidential election is weighted 75 percent and the one before is weighted 25 percent.”

SOURCES: DAILY KOS ELECTIONS, POLIDATA, SWING STATE PROJECT, OURCAMPAIGNS

Image result for images of PA 18TH DISTRICT

“In other words, the result in Pennsylvania 18 is just the latest indication that Republicans are in trouble. The best predictors of midterm strength we have — President Trump’s  approval rating, the generic ballotcongressional retirements and special elections — all are saying the same thing. In fact, of those, special election results may suggest the rosiest future for Democrats.”

“Does the Pennsylvania 18 result tell us anything else about the national political environment? That gets tricky, and I’d be cautious. But the pattern of Lamb’s over-performance may conceal other clues. For example, it’s still up for debate which political map represents America’s true baseline: the Obama-era 2012 map or the Trump-remade 2016 map, under which the white, working-class Midwest turned red and well-educated suburbs trended more Democratic. Perhaps counter-intuitively, the Pennsylvania special election suggests that the 2016 map has some staying power. Lamb out-performed Hillary Clinton’s margins by a nearly identical 19 points in white-collar Allegheny County and in Trump-loving, blue-collar Washington and Westmoreland counties. However, Lamb outperformed then-President Obama’s 2012 margin by 23 points in Allegheny while doing so by only 9 to 12 points in the district’s other three counties. Perhaps because Lamb assumed some socially conservative positions and cozied up to blue-collar workers, the Pennsylvania 18th is often portrayed as just another Midwestern working-class district. In fact, though, it is both wealthier and better-educated than the nation as a whole. As the numbers show, Lamb won this election not in “Trump country,” but in the Allegheny County suburbs.”

Image result for photos of Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone

“Finally, Pennsylvania 18 was yet another example of a Democratic turnout advantage — the telltale sign of an enthusiasm gap — helping the party do better than expected in special elections. The number of votes Lamb received was 80 percent of the number of votes Clinton received in this district in 2016 — but Saccone got just 53 percent of the number of votes Trump got. Anecdotally, turnout was also much higher in Democratic precincts than it was in Republican precincts. But, crucially for Democrats, the results hinted that maybe that Democratic turnout advantage is transferable to the higher-turnout environment of a midterm election. The 228,177 votes cast in the special election exceeded the 214,912 votes the 18th District cast in Pennsylvania’s 2014 gubernatorial election. In other words, turnout on Tuesday was even higher than it was in the last midterm.”

“Now we’re digging pretty deep into the numbers, a depth at which you can fall victim to the trap of over interpreting the results of one special election. The big-picture takeaway is this: If Democrats can win districts like Pennsylvania 18, they won’t need to stretch and scrape together a House majority. According to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean measure, 118 Republican-held districts nationwide are less red than the Pennsylvania 18th is. Of course, the entire country is unlikely to shift 22 points to the left in November the way the 18th did — and the country may not even shift the full 17 points implied by the aggregate of special-election results — but Republicans should still be very worried.”

30 comments

  1. Gronda, the Dems are running good candidates in almost every race. They are competing where they ceded the last race with no candidate. I like the increase in military veterans and women. This will help us with a greater loyalty to duty and doing the job, ok my view, rather than keeping the job – the antithesis of Trump. Keith

    Liked by 1 person

  2. “You can support the police while supporting the black lives matter movement. You can be a patriot while respecting the kneeling NFL players. You can support immigrants while wanting a strong border. You cannot support Russia and Putin and call yourself an American”

    Au contraire, the American Libertarian party totally identifies with Russia and support Putin 100%. They consider themselves true Patriots defending the Republic against the “neo-liberal globalist hordes”.

    LOL, humanity is still caught up in silly juvenile ideologies… oh what a tangled web we weave!

    Like

      • I believe you mean “Libertarian Party” as in fighting and restoring liberty in the US, altho “liberation” from tyranny may aptly be applied… ahem Trump!

        As I’ve stated before, I am a sovereign individual, as such I do not affiliate with any group or movement. So no, I am not a member, nor do i support this organization. Honestly I cannot endorse any party at the moment because they are all divisive and polarizing in nature. Ironically, Lenin’s communism ideology (pure state) not what the USSR has morphed into, is the closest to unity, peace and freedom for all! LOL.

        By design, due to inequality, all systems of government and civilization in general are limited. Greed, fear, power, lust, desire, etc are the limiting factors of human development. Balance and harmony with nature/ environment, god/ spirit, mind, even between ppl are noticeably absent in our current state of existence. What to say about politics?

        Like

        • 1EarthUnited,
          Yes, I meant “Libertarian Party”. I am an Independent, but don’t keep up with parties on the national election ballot that are not one of the two major parties because ultimately, it’s one of those candidates who is going to be elected.

          It’s rather interesting that you say you “do not affiliate with any group or movement”, yet you tend to have opinions about groups, movements, and government structures. You seem to have concluded that all parties are polarizing and divisive. It’s somewhat circular logic.

          Someone is going to be elected, and they are going to make decisions that affect the lives of American citizens. They are going to make laws that affect American citizens, businesses, what we eat, how much we earn, how much we receive in Social Security retirement, our health care, how much taxes we pay, etc.

          With politics, we can have a say as to who represents us by casting our vote. If we find that we have been betrayed, we speak at the ballot box the next time around.

          Regarding balance and harmony, I don’t expect it in politics. Balance and harmony are things for individuals to practice in their individual lives if they want to. There is a separation of spirituality and politics. I would not expect anyone representing the PEOPLE to have their only method of resolve being to sing Kumbaya.

          Liked by 2 people

        • @ Xena,

          It is because I “do not affiliate with any group or movement”, that I can freely analyze and opine about any topic of discussion. I try not to hold preconceived notions of any issue, so that I may be free to see clearly, keep an open mind, and accept new information moment to moment. If I’m wrong then I gladly admit to it, and happy to accept the objective facts. I cannot argue with another person’s subjective opinions so I just accept their beliefs with a non-judgmental attitude, and mutual respect.

          “You seem to have concluded that all parties are polarizing and divisive.” — Seems self evident to me, name one US party that’s all inclusive and welcoming to all political participants?

          The DNC won’t even accept Bernie Sanders unless he pledge to become a Democrat. Where’s the acceptance? These institutions are dinosaurs, doomed to extinction. That’s just my opinion, feel free to express your own.

          The one issue I do wholehearted agree with Libertarians: Gov’t is too big and way too intrusive in our daily lives. Should the US gov’t really be involved with “businesses, what we eat, how much we earn, how much we receive in Social Security retirement, our health care, how much taxes we pay, etc.”???

          Personally I’d rather live more autonomously and not have big gov’t meddling with these aspects of our lives. The problem with entrusting a representative to uphold our interests is well known at this point. Politicians lie. Like all the time! Of course they fight for their own political interests and donor base, not the little ppl.

          Talk about circular logic! So we end up voting out one bum for another? The system remains the same, same game – different players. What has changed?

          The point of living holistically is not to keep fracturing and separating our lives into little compartments, like the Horcruxes of our souls in Harry Potter. Why should there be separation between spirituality and politics? If one is “spiritual” or coming from spirit, then why can’t one change that aspect of one’s life? I’ll be the change that I wish to see in politics. And that is most certainly not voting one party over another… round and round we go. That’s the definition of insanity!

          I would much rather see our fellow citizens become more aware of the larger system of control and governance. Then change it from within, meaning our core beliefs and unconscious motivations. If enough of us awaken, see the farce for what it is, simply drop it and the system collapse on it’s own.

          A beautiful quote by Buckminster Fuller:
          “You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
          To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

          BTW, never underestimate the power of unity and singing Kumbaya! 😉

          Like

        • 1EarthUnited,
          Re:

          “It is because I “do not affiliate with any group or movement”, that I can freely analyze and opine about any topic of discussion. I try not to hold preconceived notions of any issue, so that I may be free to see clearly, keep an open mind, and accept new information moment to moment.”

          That’s not what you’re doing. You express strong opinions about politics that you’ve already formed. Your comment is another example of that. You believe that voting is going in a vicious circle of voting in one bum after another. ‘Nuff said. That makes your opinions about political parties and politics in general impotent.

          Your understanding of spirituality differs from my own, A person’s spiritual beliefs are reflected in how they live and treat their fellow man. Yes, I am highly concerned with heath care for all. I am highly concerned that those who retire from working have what they and their employers have paid into Social Security returned to them with interest. I am highly concerned that consumers are not defrauded and cheated by businesses. I don’t want to see people suffer. Your mileage might vary.

          Liked by 2 people

        • @ Xena,

          “You believe that voting is going in a vicious circle of voting in one bum after another. ‘Nuff said. That makes your opinions about political parties and politics in general impotent.”

          Firstly, I would like to apologize if i had offended you in any way, that is not my intention. I did explain in a previous comment about objective and subjective POVs.

          Yes I am opened to discussion about any topic, including our political system. In my subjective opinion, I do not think highly of our elected officials. That does not preclude you from thinking otherwise. I’m sure there are a few honest and true politicians out there representing their constituents. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI 2nd District) comes to mind.

          Sadly, it is from my personal observation that many are not doing their jobs very, playing partisan politics at the expense of the ppl. You know… the spineless sycophants who blindly go along party lines b/c they don’t want to lose their cushy power positions. They seem to be the majority, but hey that’s just my impression.

          I totally respect your opinion, even if it differs from mine. Perhaps you are having great experiences with your local reps, I’m sure Little Marco is great, what do I know?

          Look, I’m willing to admit that our political process is far from perfect, hopefully that would change in time, but I’m not very optimistic about our current system to be honest. Does that belief make my opinions null and void? Perhaps, so prove me wrong! What would you do differently to hold our elected officials accountable, to do their job honestly, honorably, to actually represent the ppl for whom they were elect for.

          Now that’s a problem for the ages, with no real solution. Sadly we have no real leadership at the helm for a very long time. To put our nation and it’s ppl first, before themselves.

          Like

        • 1EarthUnited,
          Politics is what it is. The power of the people is with their vote. Women and people of color sacrificed their lives for the right to vote. That right came by way of convincing politicians. I for one do not want their lives to be in vain.

          I’m not offended by your opinions. I am cautious that you represent yourself with an agenda. No one is forcing you to vote. People are free to express their disagreement with what is happening in politics and still vote. It’s not one or the other.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Dear 1EarthUnited,

      Here’s the reality. The members of the Libertarian are a small minority. Those who support President Trump are a minority. The USA is not Russia.

      In the 2018 elections, there will be no electoral college paradigm.

      Most Americans disagree with any thinking that we would be buddy-buddy with Russia which attacked the US elections’ infrastructure in 2016. Russia stole from me the right to know that my vote was not messed with. As Russian officials continue down this line, they will win the antipathy of the vast majority of Americans for years to come. This divide will not be easily mended.

      This does not mean that we don’t interact to do business. There is no rule that any country has to deal with only friends.

      President Putin needs to read the book, How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie. What Russia is doing does not comply with this book.

      Do not think for one second that most Americans align themselves with the thinking of the Presidents Trump, Putin and the US Senator Rand Paul.

      Hugs, Gronda

      Liked by 1 person

      • “Do not think for one second that most Americans align themselves with the thinking of the Presidents Trump, Putin and the US Senator Rand Paul.”

        Oh you’d be shocked how many Americans identify with new paradigm of the pro-Russian movement! I understand it’s hard to comprehend, but that’s predominantly why trump won the election! Many traditional Christian farm-belt conservatives are sick and tired of perpetual war, US hypocrisy and lying propaganda. They voted for change and we ended up with Trump, LOL. Perhaps that’s not what they were expecting, but that’s who we all ended up with. I see why so many Repubs are supportive of this President in spite of all his crazy antics.

        Since I am not beholden to either party, I have no vested interest or ideology to uphold, I can clearly see the motivations behind all involved. It seems we are our own worst enemy, Russia is coincidental, not the primary cause of our troubles.

        Like

        • Dear 1 EarthUnited,

          Get real. Only 11 percent said the term “libertarian” describes them well, according to a 2014 Pew Research poll. As per Wikipedia ,A libertarian Republican is a politician or Republican party member who has advocated libertarian policies while typically voting for and being involved with the United States Republican Party.

          Only 24 % of voters now self identify as members of the republican party. The largest group of voters self-identify as Independents. Of those, 42 % say the lean with the republican party. The democratic party has an advantage of 8 % points.

          Most credible reports estimate that President Trump’s base consists of 37% of the voting public. I suspect that this base consists of White Evangelical Christians, NRA members, those who are racist group members, closet racists, hard-line anti-immigration folks,conservative Jewish members.

          No matter how you look at the numbers, we are looking at a minority of the US population.

          I must insist that you stop with the Russian propaganda. What’s happened to you. You used to be a much more independent thinker. If I didn’t know better, I would think you are a Russian operative. You have been spending too much time with this Lady Rada. You are capable of doing better work than this. Did you undergo a personality transplant?

          CUT IT OUT!

          Hugs, Gronda

          Liked by 1 person

        • LOL, sorry Gronda, I’ll cut out the “Russian” propaganda. While I do not fully agree with Lada Ray, she does bring up some interesting points.

          BTW, if polls were 100% accurate and believable, then we should be addressing Madam President and not Mr. Trump…. just saying.

          *Peace* ❤

          Like

        • 1EarthUnited,
          Re:

          “Many traditional Christian farm-belt conservatives are sick and tired of perpetual war, …”

          I happen to be in a farm-belt conservative area and disagree with you. That attitude changed when the draft ended.

          Liked by 2 people

        • @ Xena,

          “I happen to be in a farm-belt conservative area and disagree with you. That attitude changed when the draft ended.”

          I don’t happen to be in the farm belt, so I’ll take your word for it. However… those farm belt states, particularly local counties were looking mighty red on election day. Hopefully that would change come midterms and 2020!

          Results by county. Red denotes counties that went to Trump; blue denotes counties that went to Clinton.

          https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg

          Like

        • @ Xena,

          The polls were correct. Two words in reply to your “Madam President” comment —- electoral college.

          Perhaps the polls were correct for the popular vote. But I’d be mighty surprised if Mrs. Clinton wasn’t aware of our electoral college process? Were the election rules different for her, she somehow felt exempt from abiding by them? I’m sorry she lost, but Hillary should have put more effort into campaigning those mid-western farm/ bible belt states. Hate to say it, but Trump did campaign his butt off non-stop. That may have been the difference between winning and losing.

          Like

        • 1EarthUnited,
          My previous comment was to correct your mis-perception. It was not to get into whether Clinton did not campaign properly or her knowledge of the electoral college.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Gronda, I’ll have to agree you there. Nefarious forces are at work, yet both sides claim the other to be blamed. That’s what I meant by “we’re our own worst enemy”. Instead of coming together, we picking each other apart, sowing seeds of discord, brother against brother. Isn’t that how the Civil War started?

      Like

      • Dear 1EarthUnited,

        Can you see why the majority of Americans would not want a foreign country adding and working deliberately to exacerbate these tensions, discord, etc in the USA?

        Look logically at the US set of circumstances. Why has President Trump consistently denied that Russia messed with the US ELECTIONS? Why has he had GOP sycophants in the US Congress doing an orchestrated attack on the “rule of law,” FBI, US Department of Justice (DOJ)? This is being done so that the president’s base would be prone to discount any proof these institutions provide regarding Russia’s interference in 2016 US elections? It’s because NOT ALL OF HIS base would be on board with him if they became convinced with incontrovertible proof that Russia did indeed mess big-time with US politics.

        There may be those who would be okay with absolute proof that Russia messed with US election processes, but there would be many more who wouldn’t. The president’s base would be fractured to where he would lose his base of power. At that point, most of the GOP sycophants in the US Congress would turn on him like sharks going in for the kill.

        The irony is that most of the employees at these institutions lean towards hiring folks who tend to be conservative. This is not done on purpose. It just so happens that more conservative thinking folks are drawn to law enforcement type jobs. The majority of its personnel probably vote republican. The FBI’s Special Counsel Robert Mueller III, the FBI Director Christopher Wray, the DOJ’S US attorney General Jeff Sessions and the Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein are all republicans.

        Not all republicans think and act like President Trump and those in his base.

        I do not want you to write one more word on this particular post. Frankly, my patience has simply worn thin. And please thread carefully when conversing with my friend Xena.

        Were it not for Xena, I would not have this blog today. When I started blogging, I was so green with regards to how to use the computer. She has her own blog where she has won just about every award that exists. Her expertise with the computer is well known in this blogging family and beyond. She took time out to mentor and rescue my messes more times than I can count. She downplays her role in helping me, but we both know better. I was so green that when I started blogging on a local case in Florida, the Trayvon Martin case, I had a melt down because I had so many pings on my posts. I thought I was doing something wrong. I have come to know her as a person of integrity and decency.

        As for you, I do not want you to ditto my thinking. There is a reason that I read conservative material like the Weekly Standard and others. I do want to read other points of view. I value and welcome this level of discourse. But I want the discussions based on resources to be reputed to be high in fact content. FOX TV, Breitbart, WND, Horn News are not in that category.

        You have been sounding so much like a Russian troll that it has been frightening. Please do not rely so much on this Lady Rada’s point of view which sounds more like a Russian propaganda and disinformation campaign.

        Hugs, Gronda

        Liked by 1 person

        • Dear Mz. Gronda,

          Thank You! You and Xena offer the most insightful and well researched blogs available! My respect for both of your opinions is well placed. I might add that most people who sit on the fence eventually end up in places they really do not wish to have them…

          Liked by 1 person

        • Gronda,
          Re:

          “She downplays her role in helping me, but we both know better. “

          No doubt, you’ve heard the phrase “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink” ?

          (Not calling you a horse.) What I saw was a person highly motivated and with the energy and desire to blog and blog effectively. All I did was recommend a change to the theme you were using so that your posts could be easily found. You took the time and energy to make that change.

          I am humbled by your trust and treasure your friendship. I am here for you whenever you need me.

          The technical stuff? It was a bit easier for me to be familiar with what is available in terms of widgets and options because I had already lived through some Word Press changes. There are still some things I have not yet figured out. For example, there is another blog along with your blog that when I reblog, the first photo appears HUGE on my blog. I’m not sure if it’s because of the theme I use or because the photos are centered. I’m inclined to believe it’s because of my theme. It’s an older theme that might not support reblogging from newer themes.

          There are other bloggers who asked me for help, but they could not gather up the energy to learn and apply. That’s another reason why I give you all the credit. You are a gem!

          Liked by 1 person

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