Why Israel’s war to eliminate Hamas is unwinnable and risks the lives of hostages

While the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of his extreme right governing partners gave the finger to the US president by publicly declaring that under his leadership there will be no separate Palestinian state and that Israel will be providing security for the Palestinians in Gaza, post war, he continues to deliver speeches, promising both to achieve “total victory over Hamas,” and also rescue the hostages.

Very recently, he rejected conditions proposed by Hamas for the release of the remaining hostages held in Gaza, including the end of the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, but leaving Hamas in place.

Four months of dismal results by the Israeli military against Hamas fighters in Gaza present a stark contrast to the devastating costs Israel has imposed on Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Then there’s his poking Iran via proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, with multiple attacks outside of Gaza in ways that could easily escalate Israel’s war against not just Hamas but other enemies.

See: Understanding a week of missile strikes across Middle East/ BBC

1.23.24

The tragedy of 21 fallen Israeli soldiers on January 22, 2024 and all their grief-stricken families and loved ones is a tell-tale sign that Israel’s war with the goal of eliminating all Hamas fighters in Gaza isn’t progressing well.

As per the January 23, 2024 Reuter’s/ Guardian report, “Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza on Monday when two buildings they had mined for demolition collapsed, according to the Israeli military. A spokesperson said the soldiers were killed in Maghazi refugee camp after militants fired grenades at a nearby tank, causing the buildings to collapse.”

“Reports in local media said explosives set by the soldiers detonated prematurely. The deaths came amid fierce fighting around the southern city of Khan Younis, with dozens of Palestinians killed and wounded. The Israeli deaths are likely to increase domestic pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu over his leadership and handling of the war effort.”

See: They left behind spouses, infants and dreams with the goal of protecting their homes: Stories of the fallen soldiers (January 22, 2024)/ Ynetnews.com.

Twenty-four killed in deadliest day for Israeli forces of Gaza war

Graphic showing that 1.9 million people in Gaza have had to leave their homes since 7 October 2023 out of a total population of 2.2 million.

According to a very recent Wall Street Journal report, only 20%-30% of Hamas fighters in Gaza have been taken out by Israeli military since October 7, 2023 when Hamas savagely attacked Israelis and foreigners, killing about 1,200 and kidnapping about 240.

As per the January 21, 2024 Washington Post report, “Gaza Health Ministry says death toll tops 25,000” by Leo Sands:

“Palestinian health officials said the death toll reached 25,105 after 178 people were killed in the past day, a figure that could climb because emergency workers were racing to rescue more victims trapped under rubble after attacks, the ministry said. A total of 62,681 people in Gaza have also been injured, the ministry said.”

“Aid organizations with a presence in Gaza say its spiraling humanitarian catastrophe is making life increasingly unsustainable for many Palestinians, compounding the lethal threats posed by Israel’s military campaign against Hamas.”

“People in Gaza are dying not only from bombs and bullets, but from lack of food & clean water, and hospitals without power & medicine,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said.”

Ajith Sunghayhead of the U.N. Human Rights Office in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, described a “pressure cooker environment,” with communications blackouts compounding the fears sparked by shortages.”

“According to a Washington Post analysis, the damage unleashed in Gaza has probably outpaced the level of destruction witnessed in any other recent conflict.”

Soldiers and military vehicles dot a terrain of damaged buildings and dusty roads under a grayish sky.
GAZA/ NYT

As per the below New York Times article, this past week, 4 Israeli military generals broke ranks with the Israeli prime minister’s recent pronouncements by publicly talking with New York Time’s journalists, on condition of anonymity because they’re not permitted to speak publicly. They discuss why the dual objectives of freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas are mutually incompatible, despite boasting by the Israeli prime minister claiming, otherwise.

As per the January 20, 2024 New York Times report, “In Strategic Bind, Israel Weighs Freeing Hostages Against Destroying Hamas” by Ronen Bergman and Patrick Kingsley:

Excerpts:

“After more than 100 days of war, Israel’s limited progress in dismantling Hamas has raised doubts within the military’s high command about the near-term feasibility of achieving the country’s principal wartime objectives: eradicating Hamas and also liberating the Israeli hostages still in Gaza.”

“Israel has established control over a smaller part of Gaza at this point in the war than it originally envisaged in battle plans from the start of the invasion. That slower than expected pace has led some commanders to privately express their frustrations over the civilian government’s strategy for Gaza, and led them to conclude that the freedom of more than 100 Israeli hostages still in Gaza can be secured only through diplomatic rather than military means.”

“The dual objectives of freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas are now mutually incompatible, according to interviews with four senior military leaders, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to speak publicly about their personal opinions.”

Soldiers ascending a tunnel with an arch over stairs.
Tunnel/ NYT

“There is also a clash between how long Israel would need to fully eradicate Hamas — a time-consuming slog fought in the group’s warren of underground tunnels — and the pressure, applied by Israel’s allies, to wrap up the war quickly amid a spiraling civilian death toll.”

“The generals further said that a drawn-out battle intended to fully dismantle Hamas would most likely cost the lives of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza since Oct. 7, when Hamas militants invaded Israel, killed roughly 1,200 people and took some 240 captives.” 

“Foreign leaders have grown alarmed by the death toll caused by Israel’s campaign, prompting accusations — strongly denied by Israel — of genocide.”

“Families of hostages have become more vocal about the need to free their relatives through diplomacy not force. Some hostages taken into Gaza have since been declared dead — and it is not yet clear whether they were accidentally killed by Israeli forces or by Hamas.”

“Of the more than 100 hostages liberated since the invasion began, only one was freed in a rescue operation. The others were all swapped for Palestinian prisoners and detainees during a brief truce in November.”

Gaza: Mapping the human cost - BBC News
BBC

“By focusing its efforts on destroying the tunnels, the military risks mistakes that could cost the lives of more Israeli citizens. Three Israeli hostages were already killed by their own soldiers in December, despite waving a white flag and shouting in Hebrew.”

“Basically, it’s a stalemate,” said Andreas Krieg, a war expert at King’s College London. “It’s not an environment where you can free hostages,” he added.”

“If you go into the tunnels and you try to free them with special forces, or whatever, you will kill them,” Dr. Krieg said. “You either will kill them directly — or indirectly, in booby traps or in a firefight.”

“Many tunnels have been destroyed but if the remaining tunnels are left intact, Hamas will remain effectively undefeated, decreasing the likelihood that the group would release hostages under any circumstances short of a complete cease-fire.”

“The remaining alternative is a diplomatic settlement that could involve freeing the hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinians jailed by Israel, along with a cessation of hostilities.”

IDF says it uncovered new terror tunnel from Gaza Strip into southern ...

“According to three of the commanders interviewed by The Times, the diplomatic route would be the swiftest way of returning the Israelis who remain in captivity.

For some on the Israeli right, the war’s limited progress is the result of the government’s recent decision, following pressure from the United States and other allies, to slow the pace of the invasion.”

“But military leaders say their campaign has been stymied by a Hamas infrastructure that was more sophisticated than Israeli intelligence officers previously assessed.”

“Before the invasion, officials thought the tunnel network beneath Gaza was up to 100 miles in length; Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, had claimed in 2021 that it was closer to 300 miles.”

“Military officials now believe there are up to 450 miles of tunnels underneath a territory that is just 25 miles at its longest point. Under Khan Younis alone, Israel estimates that there are at least 100 miles of passageways, spread across several levels. And across Gaza, there are an estimated 5,700 shafts leading to the network, making it so hard to disconnect the network from the surface that the army has stopped trying to destroy every shaft it finds.”

“Locating and excavating each tunnel is time-consuming and dangerous. Many are rigged with booby traps, according to the Israeli military.”

IDF Destroys Gaza ‘Terror Tunnel’ as New Round of Rockets Fired From ...

“Once inside, a highly trained Israeli commando loses most of the military advantage he holds above ground. The tunnels are narrow, often only wide enough to pass in single file. That means that any fighting within them is reduced to one-on-one close quarters combat.”

“On the eve of Israel’s invasion, the military assessed that it would establish “operational control” over Gaza City, Khan Younis and Rafah — Gaza’s three largest cities — by late December, according to a military planning document reviewed by The Times.”

“But by mid-January, Israel had yet to begin its advance into Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, and still had not forced Hamas from every part of Khan Younis, another major city in the south.”

“After the army appeared to establish control over northern Gaza at the end of last year, it said that the war had entered a new, less intense phase. Generals withdrew roughly half of the 50,000 troops stationed in northern Gaza at the peak of the campaign in December, and more departures are expected by the end of January.”

“That created a power vacuum in the north, allowing Hamas fighters and civilian officials to try to reassert their authority there, alarming many Israelis who hoped Hamas had been entirely vanquished in the area.”

“On Tuesday, Hamas militants in northern Gaza fired a barrage of about 25 rockets into Israeli airspace, angering Israelis who had hoped that after months of war that Hamas’s rocket launching abilities had been destroyed.”

“In recent days, police officers and welfare officers from the Hamas-run government have re-emerged from hiding in Gaza City and Beit Hanoun, 2 northern cities, and tried to maintain day-to-day order and restore some welfare services.”

Gaza E.R. ~ Map: In and Out of Gaza | Wide Angle | PBS

“And Hamas’s top leaders in Gaza — including Mr. Sinwar, Mohammad Deif and Marwan Issa — remain at large.”

“Some Israeli politicians say that Israel could defeat Hamas faster, and rescue the hostages, by applying more force.”

“But military analysts say that more force will achieve little.”

“It is an unwinnable war,” Dr. Krieg said.”

“Most of the time when you are in an unwinnable war, you realize that at some point — and you withdraw,” he added. “

“Mr. Netanyahu says it is still possible to achieve all of Israel’s goals and has dismissed the idea of stopping the war.”

“Halting the war before the goals are achieved will broadcast a message of weakness,” he said.”

Note: This post was updated on January 24, 2024.

17 comments

  1. Firstly on the genocide charges. Israel and its supporters can real out a long list of similar events over the past four decades which the world and in particular the protesting community did little about. So whatever happens they can play the antisemitic card to their supporter base.
    Secondly as has been discussed there will be very hard and bitter questions asked from Israelis as to why 7th October happened and Netanyahu should take the fall for it along with the chain of command in that region and Mossad heads.
    Thirdly. Dr. Krieg has made the most important and pertinent comment. The IDF are making a classic mistake common amongst large conventional armies. They are treating Hamas as if it were a conventional army itself. Hamas is an idea and amongst one of its basic ideologies is the concept of martyrdom, and a also there will be a willing stream of replacement. The IDF should look to the lessons of the Vietnam and Afghanistan Wars. No matter the casualties the replacements keep on coming. You only defeat Ideas with other Ideas winning over the other side.

    Liked by 1 person

    • The Israeli Right Wingers have nothing to offer the Palestinians, OR THE WORLD! Fighting HAMAS is just an excuse, they are trying to either run all the Arabs out of Israel, or kill them all. There 8s no middle ground for them.
      I heard on the news tonight there is some kind of two month peace plan. I hope I heard correctly!

      Liked by 2 people

      • And Hamas along with Iran (the latter more covertly) would like a similar fate to befall the Israelis too.
        Both sides have extremists at the helm and they are locked into a ‘fight to the death’ mindset.
        No government or group with weapons have clean hands in that region.
        This is not the first outbreak Muslims have suffered:
        Assad in Syria did the same to his own people. Thanks to Russia and a supine Left in Europe he got away with it. (600,000 casualties in that many sided war – which still goes on)
        The Myanmar military and fired up mobs did the same to the Rohingya. (25,000 dead) It made the news and governments noticed but not those so concerned now.
        Who knows how long the slaughter has been going on in Dafur. (estimates in the high tens of thousands).That makes the news but quite frankly very few in the West gives a **** .
        And there’s the Yemen which comes and goes out of fashion (en trend at the moment because the USA and UK are firing missiles at the Houthi faction)
        And those are the ones with the tens of thousands dead, the ones with just ‘the hundreds’ might make a minor news item, as for the tens- well what’s ten dead and an odd village here and there burnt down?
        Sick of heart just doesn’t begin to describe how I feel old friend.

        Liked by 2 people

        • I just mentioned the current ones old friend.
          The death toll during the Cultural Revolution is estimated between 500,000 to upwards of the figures you quoted. And all the while fools in the West who thought themselves politically astute or ‘revolutionaries’ were cheering Mao Zedong on and quoting from his little red book.
          Another in the long list of crime by association by the ‘radical’ Western Left.
          Like a mirror image of those on the Right who want to re-write Hitler and the history of the USA / Canada.
          If we were to itemise only those slaughters of the 20th Century we would fill at least an equivalent of an A4 sheet of paper.
          If we at least had a conscience in hindsight we would rail and protest at EVERY outrage and not try and give free passes to those who suit our agendas.
          No, the Human political mindset is fixed to ‘reset’ and not ‘learn’.
          I could go on but chores around the house are calling. At least there’s an honesty there.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Nope. Those who got on top of the Communist pile invented all sorts of ideas to stay there. Like Democratic Centralism:
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_centralism

          And then we have religious schools of thought which throw out the original basics of the teachings or twist the words in all sorts of directions.

          And then we have Libertarianism which currently embraces the idea of ‘I abjure any sense of responsibility and community with my neighbour and just do as I damn well please’

          Like the old saw:
          ‘Remember The Golden Rule,
          ‘What’s that?’
          ‘Whoever has the gold makes the rules,’

          Liked by 1 person

        • What? Us fixated on the concept of dominating and supressing others just to suit our life style or beliefs. Or simply wiping them out.
          Gosh! What a terrible thought.
          Thank goodness I have only heard that about 40,000 times in my life, otherwise I might be disillusioned with The Human Race.

          Liked by 1 person

      • Hi!

        PM Netanyahu is looking out for Netanyahu, end of story. You’re right in saying that PM Netanyahu just wants to see the backside of all Palestinians as they leave Israel.

        Hamas leaders did join in on meetings set up by diplomats from Qatar and Egypt, only to reject Israel’s offer for a 2-month cease-fire which would have allowed for the return of hostages in Gaza with prisoners from Israeli jails.

        It’s still my opinion that both Hamas and the PM Netanyahu with his extremist governing buddies have to be made to step down from power to allow for peace to have a chance. Since 2007, Hamas, as an Iranian backed terrorist organization has members who rule the Palestinians in Gaza like the Mafia or ISIS would do. For at least 16 years, PM Netanyahu has done all that’s possible to thwart the possibility of a separate Palestinian state.

        Hugs, Gronda

        Like

        • All current leaders have to go, that is without question. But I wonder, who can lead the Palestinians? They’ve been under the rule of the PLO and HAMAS for so long they have probsbly given up on self-govetnment. And they do need their own government! Israel cannot be left with all the power.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Hi Roger,

      The US learned the hard way that winning a war in a region where you’re clueless about the culture, is a prescription for failure. Yes, there’s lots of hypocrisy by world leaders and what else is new.

      For right now, it’s important that some Israeli War cabinet members are saying the truth out loud, Israel’s war to eliminate all Hamas fighters is not possible and that this thinking will cost the lives of hostages still in captivity.

      Hugs, Gronda

      Liked by 2 people

      • Quite right Gronda.
        This was a classic Middle East lashing out by one power group at the civilians of another:
        (Jordan govt. 1970/71 against Palestinians – 3,000 dead)
        (Syrian govt 1982- Hama Insurrection civilian death toll 25,000 minimum)
        (Lebanese Civil Wars – 1975-1990 All sides guilty estimate 150,000 dead)
        (Syrian Civil War 2015 – . All sides guilty. At least 25,000 dead)
        (Yemen 2014 – All sides guilty .Possible 400,000 dead through war, famine and disease )

        We can only hope the Israeli people will make sure Netanyahu and his group get called out over this and are torn down.
        Otherwise the long term future for their state is grim as any group in the Middle East wanting to gain traction only has to play the anti-Israeli card and go in for a long war. A state of siege. They would do well to bring those settlers to heel too.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Hi Roger!

          I tell people that folks are living in Hell, here on earth with too many enduring unbearable sufferings because enough of us who are comfortable won’t or can’t lift a finger. If there’s a God, there will be a reckoning.

          The very least we can all do, is not endorse any form of prejudice against any minority because of its religion, sex, nationality, color, etc. and honor the humanity in all of them. We can use our voices to shine a light on injustice whenever and wherever we see it.

          Like any far-right group, PM Netanyahu with his cohorts do view Palestinians as other, as animals, etc. Everything he has done reflects this thinking. Hamas’s charter calls for the outright extinction of Israel. These two groups were made for each other.

          It’s a struggle.

          Hugs, Gronda

          Liked by 2 people

        • Well said Gronda.
          I agree on every point.
          ‘Whenever and wherever’ indeed.
          And not to give a free pass to those who suit your political views either.
          It is a struggle indeed, there is so much ill-informed, selective tosh being dished out by Right and Left. I am quite the political orphan (I no more trust the UK radical Left -once my home-than I do the UK current government)

          Liked by 1 person

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