aside Hard Facts About Media Bias Towards Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump

elections-234-clinton-trumpOver the past weeks, I have been critical of the media outlets coverage of both the Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump campaigns. My major complaint has been that the TV news outlets have been attempting to create a sense of false equivalency between the two candidates when there is no comparison. Then Donald Trump has managed to play the media to where he has been the recipient of so much free coverage that he doesn’t have to buy ads. Finally, when a story is publicly shared, there seems to be insufficient context, so that one is frequently left with having more questions than having learned anything.

I have been researching to check if there are any studies to verify my contentions. Well, here it is. On 9/20/2016 the Washington Post published a Monkey Cage analysis, “Is the media biased toward Clinton or Trump? Here is some actual hard data,” by John Sides. The following are some excerpts:

“An interesting new analysis comes from the team at the Data Face, Jack Beckwith and Nick Sorscher. I asked them a few questions about what they found. Below is a lightly edited transcript.”

elections-hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump-cartoon-390x220Measuring media coverage of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

“We compiled a total of 21,981 articles written about the election dating back to July 1, 2015. To be included in our data set, each article had to reference either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in its headline (but not both). The articles came from the websites of eight major media outlets: the New York Times, The Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Wall Street Journal, Slate, Politico, Fox News and the Weekly Standard. We wanted a mixture liberal and conservative outlets, at least according to conventional wisdom.”

Media Mentions

“We looked at the number of articles that were published about each candidate over time, which captures their ability to dictate the news cycle. And using the actual text of the articles, we evaluated the tone of the coverage — how positive or negative it was toward each candidate — and how it has shifted throughout the campaign.”

How do you know whether a story is positive or negative about either of the candidates?

“We did this via a computer algorithm, which is becoming increasingly common as social scientists work with huge data sets of text. There are a variety of approaches to what’s often called sentiment analysis, but our methodology was this: for each article, the algorithm identified every adjective. Then, using a very large word bank, it scored the adjectives on a scale of -1.0 (most negative) to +1.0 (most positive). The computer then averaged those values to generate an overall sentiment score for each article.”

“But given that we were working with news articles (the Onion wasn’t among our outlets), we believe these concerns are less relevant. Moreover, sentiment analysis has been shown to be surprisingly effective in predicting the stock market, summarizing customer feedback and delineating a population’s political views.” 

First, how much coverage have the two candidates received in these outlets, and how has that changed over time?

“The first thing that jumped out at us when we started examining our data was the sheer number of headlines in which Donald Trump’s name appeared. Across the eight outlets, we found Trump’s name mentioned in a total of 14,924 article headlines from July 1, 2015, to Aug. 31, 2016. Clinton has been mentioned in less than half that amount.Both candidates’ mentions have increased over the course of the campaign, although the increase in Trump’s mentions occurred earlier and at a faster rate than Clinton’s. Before August, Trump’s peak month was March 2016, largely driven by the increased coverage surrounding his presumptive nomination.”

Sentiment Difference

 Is one candidate getting “worse” coverage than the other?

“The answer is that it varies over time it and appears to depend on the most salient events. For example, Donald Trump’s worst weeks have come in November 2015, around the time he suggested the need for a national database of Muslim citizens and also mocked a disabled New York Times reporter. The tone of Clinton’s media coverage seems to have suffered most when her private email server scandal came to the fore once again in early July 2016.”(Donald Trump’s worst political incident has to do with the October 2016 surprise when 2005 Access Hollywood tapes revealed Donald Trump’s describing how he likes to pursue and treat beautiful women in vulgar terms.)

” Earlier in the year, from mid-December through early April, the tone of Clinton’s coverage was consistently more positive than Trump’s when averaged across all eight outlets. After that, the tone of Clinton’s coverage swung from her most positive week over the entire campaign in early June to her most negative in the span of four weeks. The tone of Trump’s coverage, meanwhile, has tended to decline since mid-April.” (It was at its worst during the 10/9/16 presidential debate.)

“But over the past weeks — and our data goes through Sept. 13 — no candidate has had a consistent advantage.”(This changed in October 2016 with the release of the 2005 tapes described above.)

clinton-book-cover-small2d34ad8300000578-3265188-image-a-29_1444319875988What about the individual outlets? Are there differences in how (individual outlets)  cover the candidates?

“Yes, there are differences. For each media outlet, we took the articles in our sample and computed a median sentiment score for Clinton and Trump. We then took the difference between those scores as a way of gauging whether coverage of one candidate was more positive or negative than coverage of the other.”

“We found that all of the media outlets that we considered “liberal” treated Clinton more favorably. The more conservative outlets  seemed more on the fence about Trump. In our sample of articles, only the coverage of Fox News was more positive toward Trump than Clinton, at least to a statistically significant degree. Coverage at Weekly Standard, Wall Street Journal and Chicago Tribune didn’t clearly favor one candidate or the other.”

It strikes me that the levels of positive or negative sentiment are fairly modest. You scored articles on a scale from -1 to +1, but the averages over time or within outlets are pretty close to 0. So it seems like any “bias” — isn’t large.

donald-trump-forbes-covertrump-magazine-newsweek“That being said, we’re still able to pick up on subtle differences in tone because of our large sample size. We’ve gathered almost 3,000 articles from The Washington Post alone since July 2015. Even a difference of 0.012 between Clinton and Trump registers as statistically significant. Of course, we can debate its substantive significance.”

Last question: What is The Data Face?

“The Data Face is a website that I (Jack) started last October, during my senior year at the University of Pennsylvania. We’ve assembled a team of three “data journalists” who investigate topics in music, politics and sports. To date, we’ve tackled questions like which cities have produced artists with the most Billboard Hot 100 hits, where the 2016 Warriors rank in NBA history, and of course, how positively (or negatively) the media has treated each 2016 presidential candidate. All of our articles rely on data that we collect ourselves and present in interactive visualizations.”

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3 comments

  1. Good post. What is covered and what is not by the mainstream media frustrates me. The media is finally getting around to reporting on Trump’s history which tells any voter what they need to know about this man. Yet, it is covered less in the mainstream, unless it is sensational. The fact he has 3,500 lawsuits in a 45 year career, averaging one and a half per week is not sexy enough for coverage. His business dealings with unscrupulous people was covered in Newsweek, but made less a dent in the daily media.

    The best reporting I have seen on Clinton’s history has been in this blog. Most of what is reported is on the crafted caricature or legend of HRC that is more interesting than the boring truth. Much of the mainstream media is sloppy and will take assertions as truth when they are not. The boring truth is she is imperfect, made mistakes like all of us, but has been a competent servant.

    • Dear Keith,

      You’ve nailed it. The way DT has managed his business is not how I would want our country to be run. You would think that his business history which is the best predictor of what he would do in the White House, would be covered more extensively in the media.

      Mrs. Clinton is human and definitely imperfect. But she is the most qualified candidate for the presidency.

      My thinking is that DT and his staff will be going scorched earth against the Clintons in order to depress voter turnout. That is their only option left.

      Ciao, Gronda

      • Scorched earth is likely his strategy. This is his political equivalent of “bomb the shit out of them.” I expected a little more voter fall off than happened tugs far, but if another shoe drops showing this is not an isolated event (the audio of his comments), which we know to be the case, it will hopefully be the final nail in his coffin.

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