aside Democrat Jon Ossoff Has 7 Point Lead For 6/20/17 Georgia Congressional Seat Special Election

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handelThere is a Georgia congressional seat vacated by the current republican HHS Secretary Tom Price who has never lost a reelection by less than 62% of the vote. This was a seat held by the former congressional representative Newt Gingrich. That this seat is showing the democratic candidate with a significant 7 point lead over the republican contender Karen Handel has to be causing republican legislators to suffer a major case of heartburn.

The special election has been scheduled for June 20, 2017 to fill this formerly republican held seat. In 2012, Mitt Romney won Price’s House district, which spans the affluent and highly-educated suburbs north of Atlanta, by 61 percent. Donald Trump pulled just 48 percent (a 1% win) in November 2016, running neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton. It seems that the highly educated, well off voters in the 6th district (Atlanta suburb) are not impressed by the likes of the republican President Donald Trump.

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handelMr. Ossoff is only 30 years old but he has worked as a staffer for Rep. Hank Johnson, who represents a majority African-American district in Atlanta, off and on from 2006 to 2012. He does speak French, and he did his undergraduate studies at Georgetown. Later, he earned a master’s from the London School of Economics. He founded a firm that makes documentary films around the world about corruption.”

Republicans have tried to make a big deal about him currently not residing in the district. He has explained that he has been temporarily living nearby with his girlfriend who is studying to become a medical doctor.

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handelAccording to a 5/26/17 AJC.com report by Greg Bluestein, “And Ossoffhas energized Democrats hoping to “make Trump furious” in the most competitive race in the nation since the Republican became president. His campaign said he’s raised roughly $3 million, and national Democratic groups are pouring money and staff into the race.”

“House GOP leaders have countered with a series of ads featuring footage of Ossoff in Star Wars outfits and playing a robust game of rock-paper-scissors (while in college). And on Monday, former Johns Creek city councilman launched a digital attack claiming Ossoff is an “embarrassment” and mocking his former boss, Rep. Hank Johnson.”

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handelOn 6/9/17, Elena Schneider of Politico penned the following report, “New poll shows Jon Ossoff with 7-point lead in Georgia race.”

Excerpts:

“Democrat Jon Ossoff — buoyed by a record $24 million in fundraising — has notched his best poll result of Georgia’s special House election with less than two weeks to go in the contest, with an Atlanta Journal Constitution survey released Friday, showing Ossoff with a 7-point lead over Republican Karen Handel.”

“The survey found Ossoff with 51 percent of the vote to Handel’s 44 percent.”

It is the second time that a public poll has shown Ossoff with a 7-point lead over Handel, who are competing to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price in a June 20 special election for his old district in the Atlanta suburbs. The polling average shows Ossoff ahead by 2 or 3 points.

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handel“The common denominator is that Ossoff is floating right around 50 percent. So then where’s Karen Handel, is the obvious question,” said Mark Roundtree, a Republican consultant whose own firm released a poll Thursday that showed Ossoff with a slight lead over Handel, 50 percent to 47 percent. “Obviously, it’s competitive, but there aren’t any public polls that have shown Handel winning.”

Nervous Democrats are not planning a victory party yet. Roundtree noted that records showing who has cast early votes in the special election so far include more voters with a GOP primary voting history, as opposed to voters with a history of voting in Democratic primaries. (Voters do not register by party in Georgia; past primary participation is the closest proxy in Georgia’s voter registration data.)”

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handel
OSSOFF

“But several Atlanta-area consultants also said that President Donald Trump’s low favorability in the district “inevitably hurts Handel and any other Republican running in a district like this one — suburban, well-educated, affluent,” said Chip Lake, another Republican consultant in the state.”

“Trump’s approval rating has not shifted dramatically since the April 18 primary, when Ossoff topped 48 percent of the vote, but the president’s ratings have ticked down slightly since then. Trump’s average approval rating dropped 3 points, from 43 percent to 40 percent, since April 18, according to the polling average compiled by HuffPost.”

“The Atlanta Journal Constitution has not released full results from its new survey, which was conducted by Abt Associates. But it did break down the results by party, which help explain why Ossoff has gained traction in a traditionally Republican district: Energized Democrats are almost completely united behind him, while he is picking off a small but significant share of Republicans and winning independents.”

Image result for photos of jon ossoff and karen handel“Ossoff is attracting support from 13 percent of Republicans, while Handel is getting 3 percent of Democrats, according to the poll. The survey also has Ossoff getting 50 percent of independents.”

“Karen Handel’s campaign is intensely focused on get-out-the-vote efforts of their own base, the people who they know vote Republican, and not on persuading new people to join them,” Roundtree said. “While Ossoff is trying to win additional people, which he has to do in a district like this because Republicans, at the end of the day, have a partisan advantage over Democrats.”

“Read more here from The Atlanta Journal Constitution. Abt Associates interviewed 1,000 registered voters from June 5-8 for the survey.”

9 comments

    • Dear Keith,

      This would be a great precursor for the 2018 elections where democrats have to pick up 24 seats to become the majority party in the US House of Representatives.

      Ciao, Gronda

  1. I am happy to see the polls placing him with a 7% lead!!! Last time I checked, a week or so ago, Rasmussen gave him only a 2% lead, as did the RCP aggregate. Very encouraging … fingers crossed! It is annoying that Trump has been so vocal in his support of her, but … perhaps that is actually a good thing!

    Hugs!!!

  2. Dear Mz. Gronda,
    Before we count our chickens, we need to realize that there are a few problems to consider that have the potential to complicate the issue. The first is a theft of four polling machines that contain all the voting information of the voters in the district, seems they were stolen from an unlocked pickup at a grocery store in the evening, hmmm, sounds strange, right? Then we have a Judge refuse the request to have voting machines that leave a paper trail from being used. Does anyone else see the problem the Democrat faces in this special election? I’ll make a prediction (and hope I am wrong!) the GOPTP candidate wins by 10+ points. I make this prediction after watching how many of these elections have mysteriously not come out as predicted in Republican controlled voter districts…

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