aside Dear Republican Deficit Hawks, Where Are You? Were Your Past Deficit Concerns Just For Show?

REPUBLICAN LEADERS
 The republican tax cut bill planned for 2017 is estimated to cost $1 trillion dollars. What is not being discussed in all the rhetoric back and forth or by the cable news TV programs is that nothing is being done to reduce the current 2017 deficit of about $20 trillion dollars. If nothing is done, as is the current state of affairs, then by 2027 credible tax experts predict the U.S. deficit will balloon to about $30 trillion dollars. So not only does the current 2017 tax cut plans by republicans not reduce the US debt (deficit) it will cost an additional $1 trillion just so republicans can appease the donor class. This analysis is based  on the best case scenario where the corporate tax cuts increase revenues by $500 billion dollars. The concern that I have with this assumption is that in the past 1/2 century +, there has never been a significant tax cut implemented when the stock market economy (52% of US population owns stock) is booming and when there is full employment. 
There is a real chance that if the U.S. should experience a cyclical recession as has happened in the past, real damage could be done to the U.S. economy. Maybe then the myth that the economy is better managed under the auspices of a republican US president will be permanently dispelled. The fact is that the US economy has always performed better when there is a democrat living in the White House.

FROM CBO (CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE)

Here is the rest of the story…

The Economy Under Democratic vs. Republican Presidents (Source: Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of the US Congress in March 2016, which is 10 months before Donald Trump became the republican US president.)

“The Republican Party claims to be “the party of maximum economic freedom and the prosperity that freedom makes possible.” However, an analysis of economic performance since World War II under Democratic versus Republican presidents strongly suggests that claims that Republicans are better at managing the economy are simply not true.”

Editorial cartoon on the Republican Party and tax cuts and the middle class

“While the reasons are neither fully understood nor completely attributable to policy choices, data show that the economy has performed much better during Democratic administrations. Economic growth, job creation and industrial production have all been stronger.”

“In fact, a recent paper by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson states: “The superiority of economic performance under Democrats rather than Republicans is nearly ubiquitous; it holds almost regardless of how you define success.” Fact-checking groups have investigated similar statements and have found time and time again that they are true. Moreover, past research shows that stock market returns are also higher under Democrats.”

Editorial cartoon on college graduation and jobs

“As per Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, Economists, Princeton University, “The answer, while hardly a secret, is not nearly as widely known as it should be. The U.S. economy performs much better when a Democrat is president than when a Republican is.”

“The charts in this document update and expand upon the analysis in the Blinder and Watson paper. They include more recent data for both gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment, as well as revisions  to past data that have occurred since their paper was written.”

Editorial cartoon on jobs and automation and immigration

“The charts also go back further to include all available data for the Truman presidency, though GDP data are only available beginning in 1947. The employment, as well as revisions to past data that have occurred since their paper was written.”

“The data show that, since World War II, the economy has performed substantially better under Democratic presidents. On average, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP has grown about 1.6 times faster under Democrats than under Republicans. While the strong performance under Presidents Truman, Kennedy and Johnson certainly contributes to this gap, the starting point does not matter: GDP has grown faster under Democrats regardless of whether the analysis begins with President Truman, President Kennedy or President Reagan.”

Editorial cartoon on U.S. economy and the dow

“The findings for private-sector job growth are even more striking: businesses have added jobs at a nearly 2.5 times faster rate under Democrats than under Republicans, on average. In fact, the private-sector job growth gap between Democrats and Republicans is even greater than the gap when including government jobs.”

“These results should be interpreted with caution, since numerous external factors can impact the economy, including demographic trends, the strength of foreign economies and actions by the Federal Reserve. The Blinder and Watson paper concludes that the “large and significant” performance gap between the economy under Democrats and Republicans is predominantly due to factors that “might be considered blends of good policy and good luck,” in particular lower oil prices and higher productivity growth. But as Dr. Blinder pointed out to FactCheck.org, presidents may inadvertently affect these factors while pursuing other objectives. For example, he wrote: “the fact that we entered several wars in the gulf area (the latest in 2003) under Republican presidents, thereby driving up oil prices, was not just luck – it was policy, though not economic policy.”

Related Article:
Advertisements

6 comments

    • Dear Suzanne,

      Thanks for helping to get the word out.It looks like the US Senate Leader Mitch McConnell thinks he has the votes to pass its tax-cut bill ( the 2017 Donor Relief Act) out of the US Senate, sometime this afternoon.

      Thanks a million times over for all of your support and for this reblog.

      Hugs,Gronda

  1. I agree with your assessment, Bill clinton was the last president to run a budget surplus and actually reduced the nation’s deficit for a few years! After him it was all downhill, esp under the Bush administration.

    On a side note but worth noting. Here’s add’l proof of Russian meddling as reported by Lada Ray since the election: Russian Intelligence (FSB) work with hacker operatives outside of the Russian gov’t so they never get implicated or extradited to the US for sentencing. Essentially they are outside of the law, which frustrates western law enforcement to no end. US does prosecute the small fish which point to Russian involvement.

    https://thehackernews.com/2017/11/yahoo-email-hacker.html

    Prosecutors believe that FSB officers directed the Yahoo hack and contracted Baratov when their targets—which included journalists, government officials, and technology company employees—used email accounts outside of Yahoo’s system.

    “Baratov’s role in the charged conspiracy was to hack webmail accounts of individuals of interest to the FSB and send those accounts’ passwords to Dokuchaev in exchange for money,” his plea agreement reads.
    However, according to Baratov’s lawyers, at the time of the crime, Baratov had no idea he was working with Russian FSB agents.

    “The illegal hacking of private communications is a global problem that transcends political boundaries. Cybercrime is not only a grave threat to personal privacy and security, but causes great financial harm to individuals who are hacked and costs the world economy hundreds of billions of dollars every year,” US Attorney Brian Stretch said.

    “These threats are even more insidious when cybercriminals such as Baratov are employed by foreign government agencies acting outside the rule of law.”

    • Dear 1EarthUnited,

      Thanks for the added insights regarding Russia’s meddling in US politics, which includes past hacking.

      All of that will be relevant as the US uncovers all that was done by Russia to mess with the 2016 US presidential elections.

      As to the president involvement with Russia, the evidence for any corroboration will be forthcoming from the president’s former National Security Adviser General Mike Flynn who is now a witness for the FBI.

      Hugs, Gronda

Comment

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s