Dear Republicans, The Blue Wave Is Coming In November 2018
There is no room for complacency regarding the upcoming US November 2018 elections. While it is widely accepted that the blue wave is likely for the US House of Representatives where the Democratic Party will prevail to win the majority of seats, you can bet that the Republican Party will be focusing their sights to increase its majority in the US Senate where the map looks better for them.
Complacency is not an option, as it is also possible for Democrats to win the majority of seats in the US Senate by a small margin. This would get the attention of Republican Party lawmakers and their donors.
Here is the rest of the story…
On September 9, 2018, Jonathan Swan of Axios penned the following report, “Scary signs for Republicans”
My colleague Mike Allen, who’s covered a few midterm elections in his time, says it’s rare to see so much evidence of a trend accumulate so many months out, only for all the signals to be proven wrong.
The bottom line: The signals look every bit as bad for Republicans as they did for House Democrats when they got wiped out in the 2010 Tea Party wave.
“Every metric leads you to one conclusion: The likelihood of significant Republican losses in the House and state/local level is increasing by the week,” said the Republican operative who did this statistical comparison to 2010.
“The depth of losses could be much greater than anticipated and the Senate majority might be in greater peril than anticipated.”
On September 8, 2018, Dan Balz of the Washington Post penned the following report, Forget the House. “It’s the battle for the Senate that could provide the most drama on election night.”
“For months now, the focus of Campaign 2018, rightly, has been on control of the House. All the metrics continue to point to a midterm election in which Democrats could seize control of that chamber. But the contest for control of the Senate could be the place to look.”
The House is no slam-dunk for the Democrats, but most Republicans following the campaigns are genuinely worried and probably right to be that way. The overall environment is difficult for the GOP because of President Trump and because of the location of the competitive races; suburban areas as one example. There are so many Republican-held seats at risk (and very few Democratic seats in similar danger) that Democrats have multiple paths to pick up the 23 they need to flip the chamber.”
“The Senate is and has been a different story. There the Democrats’ prospects are much more difficult, in large part because of the two big structural differences with the battle for the House. If the terrain that will determine control of the House more generally reflects the breadth of the country, the campaign for the Senate is largely playing out in the heart of Trump country.”
“Republicans are only defending nine of the 35 Senate seats up in November. They have to play far less defense than the Democrats. Second, many of the most competitive Democratic-held seats are in states Trump won easily in 2016: West Virginia by 42 points; North Dakota by 36 points; Montana by 20 points; Indiana and Missouri each by 19 points.”
“The range of possibilities in the Senate is not at all the same as in the House. No one questions whether Democrats will gain seats in the House in two months. The question is how many: a few short of the 23 they need, a few more than 23 or a lot more than 23. In the Senate, Republicans could, narrowly, lose control of the chamber or they could end up bolstering their slender two-seat majority.”
“The state of the races offers few definitive clues as to what is coming. Almost everywhere you look the contests are tight. Florida features one of the premier Senate races of the cycle and probably the costliest, pitting Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson against Rick Scott, the term-limited Republican governor.”
“A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Nelson and Scott tied at 49 percent, as have some other relatively recent polls. Scott is used to this. In two elections for governor, his victory margins were about a percentage point each time. Nelson won an easy reelection six years ago by double digits, but those days are gone.”
“Florida isn’t the only state where things look tight. An NBC-Marist poll of Missouri shows Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and state Attorney General Josh Hawley even at 47 percent each. In Tennessee, NBC-Marist shows a statistical dead heat between former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen and Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn (48 percent for Bredesen, 46 percent for Blackburn). In Nevada, where there hasn’t been much recent polling, Republican Sen. Dean Heller and Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen are also judged to be in a race that is a virtual toss-up.”
“You get the idea. Almost everywhere you look, these contests could go in either direction. No clear pattern is emerging in many of these races, which means a fall campaign in which strategists in both parties alternately dream of emerging with control of the chamber or sweating that the outcome will leave them in the minority.”
“If control of the Senate comes down to a race-by-race contest, Republicans have a slight upper hand. To gain the majority, Democrats need to protect the five incumbents in the reddest states and win two of four competitive races where Republicans hold the seat. Each defeated incumbent makes ultimate victory significantly more difficult.”
“Right now, several Democratic incumbents are in jeopardy, starting with Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who is being challenged by Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer. Heitkamp won her last race with just 50.5 percent of the vote. Republicans express more confidence about this contest than almost any other. The Cook Political Report lists it as a toss-up.”
“Not far behind in degree of difficulty for the Democrats are the races in Missouri and Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly faces Republican businessman Mike Braun. Republicans like to recall they were given little chance initially of defeating former senator Evan Bayh in his 2016 comeback attempt, and they like their chances in this race. But some Republicans note that Donnelly is running a smart campaign.”
“Two other Democratic incumbents in toss-up races are Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin III. Trump has campaigned in their states in an effort to rally his voters to turn out in November. But of the five Democrats in the reddest states, these two appear, today, in marginally better shape than their colleagues in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Florida.”
“Holding all five of those seats would still mean Democrats have to knock off two Republicans. Their prospects are brightest in Nevada, Tennessee and Arizona, where Republican Rep. Martha McSally is facing Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for the seat now held by retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake.”
Reblogged this on Musings on Life & Experience and commented:
The blue wave is coming but the Democrats need to get out and VOTE.
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D-day is less that 2 months away. All the focus of the different groups like Women’s March, Indivisible, the Resistance, the Democrats need to be in getting out the vote.
Thanks a million for all of your support and for this reblog.
Gronda, being a former Floridian, I am not a huge fan of the actions of Rick Scott. I will give him credit for getting out in front on the hurriance last year, but his difficulties with Medicare, Medicaid and climate change reveal a man who is not very forthcoming about real issues.
As for the Dems, they are fielding good candidates everywhere, but need to get out and vote. As an independent, I would love to see Ted Cruz and Devin Nunes lose as they both have done unethical and and divisive things. I think it would be good for the country to see those two guys go down.
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I hope you are going to be okay in N. Carolina with Hurricane Florence. Let us know that you are okay.
It would be great if Democrats win the majority of seats in both houses of the US Congress.
Rick Scott’s stance on issues like ACA, climate change are going to haunt him. His denial of climate change is already having dire negative consequences.
I am like you in hoping that Senator Ted Cruz and Rep. Devin Nunes go down in infamy, never to be heard of again.
Gronda, we have our fingers crossed. I would love Dems to focus on healthcare, environment and jobs. We should not be retrenching from our global leadership role as we cannot shrink to greatness. Keith
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Just taking this opportunity to wishes you and yours a safe passage in light of the weather forecast for your area.
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This is one of these times when every vote counts.
This is a time when duty calls out to every voter.
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This time, it is Keith in North Carolina who will be feeling the wrath of Florence. Going through one of these natural events is no picnic.
The word is getting out. Even President Obama is getting in the act. This time the Democratic Party leaders are backing some exceptional candidates who are getting out of their offices, doing the grass roots work. There is nothing like knocking on a lot of doors to give the candidates a real sense of what’s going on in their districts.
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Feet on the ground, formidable weapon in the armoury Gronda.
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