The political winds are shifting. The old political games in current use will become obsolete, as it is the last hurrah for the Republican Party, top heavy with angry White GOP (Grumpy Old Politicians) men who are intent to remain in power even if it means cheating million of Americans from having access to the ballot box, and then having their votes count for their intended candidate.
The changing voting demographics which will start to become obvious in 2020, will change how the political strategies for both the Republican and Democratic Parties are managed. Let’s just say that the changing voting demographics favor the Democratic Party candidates, bigly, but there is a flaw with this analysis, as described below. Still, GOP operators have been hedging their chances for GOP victories in 2020, even if that means cheating/ gaming the election systems.
All of the facts detailed below, demonstrates why the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi cannot sit back to avoid the House commencing their constitutionally mandated duty of an “impeachment inquiry” by relying on the six House oversight committees to conduct its investigations without this legal formality, and then to have the voters declare their verdicts at the upcoming November 2020 elections.
The House Democrats cannot just hope that President Trump will not win reelection in 2020. The GOP hardliners are not playing by the old more traditional political rules. While they’re playing cut-throat politics, the House Democratic leadership team appears intent to avoid a fight or of taking risks by avoiding the I-word. The base is becoming younger to where its crucial that they are motivated to get out to vote in record numbers in 2020, and they strongly favor the -I-word.
That’s why Twitter appears to be an outlier as most of its users are staunch advocates for the House initiating the impeachment process. They also represent the younger generations. As per a 2019 Statista report, only 7% of users are over 65 years old and 17% are between 50-65.
See GQ: “the political costs of not impeaching President Trump”
Here’s the rest of the story…
As per 1/30/2019 Axios report, Millennials and Gen Z will make up 37% of the 2020 electorate” by Stef W. Kight:
“The youngest Americans — millennials and Generation Z — are set to exercise their political muscle in 2020, making up 37% of the electorate, according to a new study by Pew Research.”
“Why it matters: Younger generations are by far more racially and ethnically diverse and are more likely to be Democrats. But baby boomers remain the generation with the largest share of the voting-eligible population — though barely — and older generations have historically been more likely to turn out and vote.”
- “In 2016, for example, boomers and other older generations accounted for 43% of eligible voters, but cast 49% of the ballots.
- “Yes, but: Generation Z is set to make up more than 10% of the 2020 electorate, surpassing the elderly Silent Generation for the first time. These youngest Americans have continued and deepened many of the political trends favored by millennials, and they are expected to be almost half non-white.”
See:
- Half of the post-millennial generation is non-white
- Gen Z prefers “socialism” to “capitalism”
- How Gen Z could change the GOP
“The above data sounds like great news but there’s a flaw. As per the 5/23/2019 CNN report, “Democrats have an advantage in 2020, but it may not win them the White House” by Grace Sparks, “The country’s demographics are shifting in such a way that the Democratic base is growing, but that’s not necessarily good news for the party’s chances of seizing back the White House next year (2020).”
“Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach the highest levels in decades—if not the highest in the past century—with a surge of new voters potentially producing the most diverse electorate in American history.”
“But paradoxically, that surge may not dislodge the central role of the predominantly white and heavily working-class voters who tipped the three Rust Belt states that decided 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Even amid a tide of new participation, those same voters could remain the tipping point of the 2020 election.”
Link to entire report: theatlantic.com/polititics…
This flushes out a major reason as to why GOP lawmakers have not been screaming bloody murder over how Russia successfully launched a full throttle attack via cyber warfare and a wide -reaching propaganda/ misinformation campaign, against the 2016 US elections infrastructure, as described in the 3/22/2019 FBI’s final report regarding its 22 months long Trump-Russia probe, led by the Special Counsel Robert Mueller III.
See: lawfareblog.com/ Full Text of the Mueller Report’s Executive Summaries…
Mr. Mueller has accumulated evidence proving that Russia intends a repeat attack in time for the 2020 US elections cycle. So why have the republican President Donald Trump and his sycophant in the US Senate, the Majority Leader Mitch McConnell been blocking any and all bipartisan crafted bills intended to prevent foreign manipulations/ interventions into future US elections, from being passed. The answer is way too obvious. It’s an additional way that the GOP members, led by their wanna-be authoritarian leader, President Trump, can cheat in the upcoming November 2020 elections to effect the outcomes in favor of their candidates.
As per the 7/3/2019 Washington Post report, “The Cybersecurity 202: Time’s running out if Congress wants to boost 2020 election security..” by Joseph Marks, “If Congress wants to deliver more money for states to secure the 2020 election against hackers, it had better get moving.”
“That’s the message from Vermont’s top election official, Jim Condos (D), who ends his term as president of the National Association of Secretaries of State this week.”
“There are just about six months left during which states could responsibly spend a big infusion of federal money aimed at protecting the 2020 contest, Condos told me. If Congress approves new funding after that, most of it won’t be spent until the next federal election cycle, he said. The warning comes as intelligence officials are cautioning that Russia and other U.S. adversaries are likely to try to interfere in the 2020 election in a repeat of the Russian hacking and disinformation operation that upended the 2016 contest.”
Why has President Trump become insistent in his demands to defy a current court order not to add the citizen question to the 2020 census forms? As of 7/2/2019, it looked like the White House had accepted the fact that the citizen inquiry would not be added to the 2020 census questionnaires but then on 7/3/2019 the White House reversed course with the help of the GOP partisan, US Attorney General William Barr, head of the (DOJ) US Department of Justice.
On July 3, 2019. Mark Joseph Stern of Slate penned the following report, “”Trump Tweet Causes DOJ to Reverse Course in Census Case After Promising Court It Was Over
“The Department of Justice told a pair of federal courts on 7/3/2019 that it will try to find a new way to place a citizenship question on the 2020 census, just one day after it declared in court that it would no longer seek to do precisely that.”
“Justice Department attorneys and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who oversees the census, announced on 7/2/2019 that they had given up their quest to insert the citizenship question. They felt that the Supreme Court’s decision blocking the question left them no viable path forward, since the government maintained that it had to finalize the forms by June 30. On Wednesday morning, however, President Donald Trump tweeted that “News Reports” noting the administration’s concession of defeat were “FAKE.” “We are absolutely moving forward,” Trump wrote, “as we must, because of the importance of the answer to this question.”
“This reversal left DOJ lawyers in a bind. One day earlier, they had told U.S. District Judge George Hazel that they had made the “final” decision not to include a citizenship question. This concession was meant to forestall further discovery in the renewed equal protection case against the census question. Now, suddenly, the president had claimed the contrary—forcing these attorneys to return to court and say, “never mind.”
Link: Trump Tweet Causes DOJ to Reverse Course in Census Case…
As per a March 2018, Brennan Center for Justice report, “So, what’s the real reason for asking for people’s citizenship status?”
“While we can’t see into the minds of the people who pushed for the citizenship question, unsavory political motives might be in play.”
“Changing apportionment of congressional seats. The most likely impact of the citizenship question is to depress census participation — and thus, headcount— especially among immigrants, members of mixed-status households and communities of color. States with high concentrations of those populations are likely to experience dramatic “undercounts” of their residents. If the undercounts are significant, then those states could lose congressional seats, which are apportioned based on the census counts. In other words, the citizenship question might be a ploy to change the distribution of seats in Congress.”
“Meddling with redistricting. It might also be an attempt to meddle in the next round of redistricting, which is set to begin in 2021. Every state currently uses the census’s total population figures to draw district lines. For years, a group of conservative political activists have called for states to base their district lines not on their total population, but instead on their population of citizens who are voting age. The impact of such a change would be dramatic, altering every state legislative map in the country. It would especially harm communities with high immigrant populations, as well as those with high youth populations. In 2015, the Supreme Court rejected an attempt to require states to base redistricting decisions on citizen voting-age population figures. It did not, however, address the question of whether it is permissible for states who wish to use such figures for redistricting to do so. By requiring the census to track citizenship status, the administration might be laying the groundwork to push for redistricting based on citizenship figures.”
“According to news reports, the political appointee who requested the change, John Gore, previously defended Republican redistricting plans that were later found to be discriminatory, and another appointee to the census, Christopher Stanley, previously worked for a member of Congress who repeatedly introduced legislation to add a citizenship question to the census.”
Conclusion: The House Democratic Party leadership team cannot make decisions based on President Trump not winning reelection in 2020.
Gronda Morin 
If the election is fair and honest, and IF every eligible person votes, there would be no way in hell that Trump could win re-election, and it’s doubtful that many GOP members of Congress could, either. Thing is, neither of those two ‘ifs’ are going to happen. This is almost certain to be the most dishonest, unfair election in the history of the nation, or at least since the Voting Rights Act was signed into law. AND … given the current state of things, it is most likely to be those who would vote democrat that will be most apathetic and most likely to be disenfranchised by one or more dirty tricks the republicans have up their sleeve.
Looking at the age demographics you have here, I now understand why some states have passed laws to remove ‘mobile polling stations’ that frequently set up shop on college campuses. My thoughts here are that the best possible thing we could do at this point is push … and I mean push hard … to get the states to all pass mail-in voting laws such that there is no need to rely on polling places and hours. And, to dig in with our Senators and insist that they take election security bills seriously whether Uncle Mitchie likes it or not!
There is too much at stake in next year’s election. I truly believe that our entire system of government, our Constitution itself, are at stake and likely to crumble if Trump is given a second term. I, for one, am tormenting my representative in the House, a damn republican who is a part of the ignoble ‘House Freedom Caucus’, with daily emails, tweets, Facebook comments, and letters to the editor of my local papers. I agree that I would like to see the House start an impeachment inquiry, but it is not a panacea, and at this point, I think we need to work on other areas as well. Sigh. Gonna be a long 16 months, my friend.
Hugs!
LikeLiked by 2 people
Dear Jill,
I agree with your thinking 100%, even the warning that the House commencing -I-inquiry is no panacea. The only real major differences is that the courts do grant the House oversight committees extra deference under the impeachment legal status. When the WH is strategic in its plans to block all demands for evidence by the House to run out the clock, any def the courts grant the House is a help.
The Dems are bringing a dinner knife to a war as the other side is resorting to missiles / nuclear war where the continuation of our US democracy is at stake. The tactic of avoidance of risk, to walk away from a fight so the opposition can burn this country down, is a losing move by House Dems in this political war, that will cost this country, and the Democratic Party’s well being, bigly.
Speaker Pelosi has yet to face the reality that her avoiding the -I-word with the media wall-to-wall coverage this step would engender, is her refusing to use just that one extra tool to help check President Trump in his authoritarian ways.
The House also has to figure out a way to get their recently passed Safe Act, a bill to secure our US elections to be voted on in the US Senate where its passage is being blocked by the Senate’s Maj Ldr Mitch McConnell.
I’m thinking that Dems need to play offensive game instead of one, of retreat.
Happy 4th of July!
Hugs Gorgeous,
Gronda
LikeLiked by 2 people
Yep … the clock is ticking … loudly … and I am disappointed in the House democrats. The impeachment inquiry should have commenced months ago. I have seen little coming out of the House … any bills they pass are not going to make it through the Senate, for McConnell and his goons have zero interest in good governance, but are more concerned with politicking. And frankly, I am not too thrilled with any of the top candidates for next year’s presidential election. We have work to do! Hope your holiday was safe and fun!
Hugs ‘n love!
LikeLiked by 1 person
If we lose in 2020, it will be due to dirty tricks, gerrymandering and complacency. It definitely will be dishonest.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dear Mary,
You’ve got the picture. These GOP Grumpy Old Pains in the derriere, will use every trick in the book to hold onto power, and the Supreme Court by refusing to deal with the extreme partisan gerrymandering in states has just boosted their chances.
Dems cannot afford the belief that President Trump will lose. It’s obvious that a Democratic candidate will win the popular vote but GOP operators know that. They are working out how to win via the electoral college map.. That’s why VP Biden is leading in the polls. He’ll help Dems win in states like PA, WI, MI, OH.
Any decisions House Dems make should be on the basis that President Trump will win the 2020 election. You’re right in saying complacency is not the appropriate response when the house is burning.
Hugs, Gronda
LikeLiked by 1 person
I am not going to defend Speaker Pelosi, and I am glad I am not in her shoes. But trump has no integrity, no ethics, no compassion, no empathy, no remorse, etc. . There is no sh*thole too deep or too rotten for trump to drag this country into.
trump is like a pop star, his supporters live through and identify personally with his media personality, He gives them a vicarious experience of being who they want to be just like pop stars do. The vicarious experience is very supperficial, i.e lowest common denominator and so on other levels trump supporters may differ on many issues but their common vicarious experience dominates to unify them.
Any criticism of trump is a personal attack on a trump supporter, issues have no meaning and play no part in the world of trump, its only about trump and his supporters personally identify as him.
I think she understands that if this heats up, trump will not hesitate to attack, any means are “best practices” for trump, and if she goes after him as many people want, when she turns around to look behind her many of those clamering for impeachment will not be there in support because it will be too despicable of a place for people with any sense of ethics and integrity to be.
I think there is a good chance that trump will use “National Emergency” to cancel the election.
This is just my opinion.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Dear Steve Naegele,
These are tough times. You’re right to say that House Speaker Pelosi is in a no-win situation. Under more normal circumstances, I might even agree with her thinking. But now our US democracy is burning and she has the power to help mitigate the damage.
If the Speaker accepts the reality that President Trump could actually win reelection in 2020 and then she still thinks she’s doing the right thing by avoidance of -I-word, then I know she’s got something up her sleeve that we don’t know about yet. But if she gets that she has to alter her current tactics, then she better get moving.
As I just commented to Mary, this is not a time for complacency when our US democracy has been set on fire. Speaker Pelosi can’t rest on her laurels and assume President Trump will lose his reelection bid in 2020.
The one person who gets this for sure is Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan who just left the Republican Party. I’m praying that he’ll run for presidency under the Libertarian Party as he could help draw votes away from President Trump in Michigan as Trump won in this state in 2016 by only 11,000 votes.
Hugs, Gronda
LikeLike
I agree it is not a time for complacency. I am always hesitant to ask someone to do something, or hold them responsible for doing something I am not sure I would do, and at 74 years of age I am not sure I am willing to commit my remaining time to actively support this issue like I did the issues of the 1960s. I have things I personally want to do in my time and while I have an opinion, I cannot ask someone to take on this kind of situation unless I know when they turn around I will be there. I hope those that are willing do understand it could become a personally difficult situation but its worth it .
That aside, it seems very unfortunate that what should be seen as Democrats publicly discussing issues, sharing opinions and attempting to build a consensual foundation for a Democratic platform has been turned into a personality contest by the news media.
Who is winning, and judging the efforts of the party by the stated positions of “who is winning or losing” rather than seeing it as an on going interactive discussion that will result in a synthesis of the positions of the participants. I hope that the final candidate will grow with the “debates” and the party can build a consensual platform.
A global economy could be great for the world, but it does require a common global legal and enforcement structure for doing business and a successful “outcome” for the USA requires a series of US Presidents each building a solid step for the next one. President Obama did leave a solid step, but trump destroyed it and continues to minimize the ability of the US to influence the global economy. Lying, bullying, making threats, making vile personal attacks and reneging on deals are not successful medium or long term strategies, even they get votes.
The process to a global economy is not going to stop, but because of trump and his administration the USA will increasingly be a minor player in it, western businesses principles will be minimized and once oil is no longer traded in US$ this country may not be able to service its debt.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. It’s like his supporters are a bunch of groupies from the the past that followed the rock bands around and would literally die for them. I remember seeing pictures of people, mostly women, screaming in tears, throwing underwear at the rocks stars and this is very much like that. The minds are long gone.
His rallies are like a rock concert for the deranged mindless groupies of all sorts.
LikeLiked by 1 person