Can You Believe That Red States Have Higher Crime Rates Than Blue States?

Dems have ceded the issue of recent spike in crime rates to the GOP MAGA party. GOP MAGA candidates like Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania are winning points on this issue.

GOP MAGA candidates for elected office in November 2022 are relying on the misleading entrenched popular belief that crime rates are up mostly in highly populated cities in blue states while the red state cities are much safer. What’s sad is that this perception is not based on reality.

See the source image

Consider the following scenario. During a 10/19/2022 debate, a Dem candidate vying for the Oklahoma governorship, Joy Hofmeister challenged the above perception by arguing how the rates of violent crime are higher in the State of Oklahoma under long term GOP MAGA supervision than in New York or California.

Both the audience and GOP MAGA Governor Kevin Stitt vocally and openly scoffed at her claim. Her assertion was not affirmed in real time by an independent fact checker.

This settled image by voters across the board, of crime rates being higher in blue states versus red states is patently and provably false and it cannot go unchallenged. According to a 2021 Gallop poll, 51% of American adults think crime in their community is higher than in 2020, a significant jump from the previous year’s survey. I’m betting that this rate is even higher in 2022.

Why aren’t the Dem creating ads to pound the air waves to set this record straight?

See: Okla. Gov. Kevin Stitt mocks Democratic challenger Joy Hofmeister

It’s true that crime rates have risen dramatically in large, heavily populated cities like New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington DC, etc., which are located in blue states, but what’s omitted is that this reality is also a fact of life in red state cities. This narrative has been trumped up repeatedly, not only on right wing media outlets like Fox News TV but also on mainstream news outlets like CNN and The NY Times.

Meanwhile, residents living in these cities are suffering from real angst over this feeling of being unsafe and they’ll be voting, accordingly.

What news outlets have failed to point out to potential voters is that the increased crime rates in red states with its cities (led by GOP MAGA party) are much higher than in blue states even with its larger cities (states led by democratic party elected leaders).

As per the 3/15/2022 report, “The Red State Murder Problem:” 

“The current narrative around crime and murder is convenient and wrong. The data clearly paint a different story. The increase in murders is not a liberal cities problem but a national problem. Murder rates are actually higher in Republican, Trump-voting states that haven’t even flirted with ideas like defund the police. A more accurate conclusion from the data is that Republicans do a far better job blaming others for high murder rates than actually reducing high murder rates.”

See: Red States Have Higher Murder Rates Than Blue States: …

Red States Murder Problem Header

GOP MAGA pundits have oversimplified the increase in violent crime in the USA by mostly tying this problem to the culture war issue about how Dems have failed to control the influx of immigrants via the US southern border.

GOP MAGA leaders have avoided the discussion of other contributing factors to rising crime statistics like how there’s an increase in mental illness among Americans post COVID pandemic, or how many Americans have developed an addiction to pain killers trafficked by “big pharma,” or how GOP MAGA leaders have uttered and or tolerated hate speech to where there’s an increase in hate crimes against minority populations, and finally, how it is that many more folks residing in southern red states suffer from higher poverty rates than those living in blue states.  The axiom attributed to the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (121-180AD), that “poverty is the mother of crime” is as true today as it was in Roman times.

Don’t forget that while many GOP MAGA elected officials want to claim the anti-crime mantel, they are the same ones who continue to support the defeated former US president who has openly incited violence on numerous instances, the most memorable being his call to an insurrection against our US capitol on 1/6/2021, putting our US democracy in the line of fire.

As the GOP MAGAs successfully sensationalize the myth of US rising crime rates in mostly blue states, in order to weaponize this misleading data to clobber Dems in the 2022 elections, any attempts to fix this complex problem of rising crime rates on multiple fronts with a timely bipartisan comprehensive plan, based on facts, science, credible study results, and criminal experts, isn’t possible because GOP MAGA candidates plan on winning in November 2022 by talking frequently about the issue of rising crime rates.

Here’s the rest of the story…

As per my previous blog, the 2019-2022 increased rate of homicides by gun violence from 25% to 35% contributes significantly to the recent spike in overall US crime rate statistics. Much of the increase in homicide rates by guns can be blamed on the explosion in gun sales over the past couple of years. There are simply too many guns in the streets with too many red states refusing to enact sensible gun ownership restrictions/ laws.

GOP MAGA politicians love to spout their talking point that cities run by Democrats have been experiencing crime wave increases caused by failed governance, but a recent study shows murder rates are actually higher in states and cities controlled by Republicans,” as per Yahoo News .

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The study reports that murder rates in the 25 states Donald Trump carried in 2020 have 40% higher overall crime rate statistics than in the states Joe Biden won.

Many states led by GOP MAGA elected officials have the worst murder rates — like Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, and Arkansas but they aren’t urban. Only 2 of the top 100 cities in population are located in these high murder rate states. (These are also the GOP MAGA led states with higher-than-average poverty rates.)

See: Which states have the least and most crime? – USAFacts 06, 2022 ·

See: Crime Rate by State 2022 –

See: How Poverty Drives Violent Crime – OK Justice Reform

GOP MAGAs culture war explanation for increase in crime rates

As per a 5/26/2022 CNN report, “States with the most gun violence share one trait by Zachary B. Wolf :

“The indisputable fact is that where there are more guns, there are more gun deaths.”

“This is true despite Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s attempt to explain away gun deaths at the elementary school in his state… by comparing them to gun violence in Chicago.”
The top states by gun death rates are:
  • Mississippi — 28.6.
  • Louisiana — 26.3.
  • Wyoming — 25.9.
  • Missouri — 23.9.
  • Alabama — 23.6.
  • Alaska — 23.5.
“Here’s where the lack of good federal data haunts us. It’s hard to find solid gun ownership rates. The RAND Corporation, a non-profit research organization, has tried and published data on average gun ownership by state between 2007 and 2016. All of those states with the highest gun death rates are among the ones with the highest gun ownership rates.”
  • Mississippi — 50% of adults live in a household with a gun.
  • Louisiana — 48%.
  • Wyoming — 59%.
  • Missouri — 48%.
  • Alabama — 50%.
  • Alaska — 59%.
“Where there are fewer guns, there are fewer gun deaths. The states with the lowest gun death rates in 2020, per the CDC (alongside the percentage of homes with a gun in 2007-2016, per RAND) were:”
  • Hawaii — 3.4 (8% of adults live in a household with a gun).
  • Massachusetts — 3.7 (10%).
  • New Jersey — 5 (8%).
  • Rhode Island — 5.1 (11%).
  • New York — 5.3 (14%).
“The advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety, which endorses stronger gun laws, takes the CDC data on gun deaths per 100,000 residents and puts that alongside each state’s gun laws. The states with lower gun violence rates are mostly among the states with the strongest gun laws.”
“Conversely, with the exception of Louisiana, the states with the highest gun death rates and highest gun ownership rates are among the states Everytown says have the most lax gun laws.”

“Obviously mass shootings can happen anywhere, as we saw in 2022 in Buffalo, New York, and in Uvalde, Texas.”
“Most gun deaths are suicides. In 2020, 54% of gun deaths in the US were suicides, which are far less likely to get sustained public attention, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of CDC data.”
“CNN wrote in 2019 about the rising suicide rate and a study published in the journal JAMA Network Open that found higher suicide rates in rural areas — and, in cities, if there was a gun shop in the neighborhood.”
“There’re higher murder rates in cities, and they’re often in places with more lax gun laws, like Jackson, Mississippi. Read this CNN dispatch about murders in Jackson.”
“According to Everytown’s analysis of FBI data, the cities with the highest gun homicide rates in 2020 were all in states with lax gun laws:”
  • Jackson, Mississippi — 69 gun homicides per 100,000 people.
  • Gary, Indiana — 64.
  • St. Louis — 50.
  • New Orleans — 48.
  • Memphis, Tennessee — 47.


  1. Gronda, yes. Why? More guns, more poverty and more drugs. Healthcare is also worse in those areas per the nonpartisan Commonwealth Fund, so health care bankruptcies are higher leading to even more poverty. Keith

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dear Keith,

      Yes, the issue of healthcare deserts in red state rural impoverished areas is another contributing factor to the increase of violent crimes. Desperate peoples act out.

      Red states suffer from high closure rural medical facilities because GOP MAGA officials refuse to sign up for Medicare Extension monies.

      Also, as per a 2015, “Limited access to quality hospitals may be a contributing factor to firearm deaths. Often, victims of gunshots or other violent crimes need immediate medical attention, which may be more difficult to receive in rural areas. “If you have a hospital with a Level III trauma center, your likelihood of surviving an injury like a gunshot wound is far higher than if you lived near a basic hospital.”

      “The poverty rate in eight of the 10 states with the most gun violence was above the national rate of 15.8%. Mississippi, New Mexico, Louisiana, and Arkansas, the states with the four highest poverty rates in the country, were among the states with the most gun violence. Educational attainment rates also tended to be lower in states with the most gun violence.”

      I’m one of those who becomes frustrated with the shenanigans of both our US political parties. One traffics in lies while resorting to cheating to keep power which places our US democracy at risk. The other is impotent in acting to counter GOP tactics.

      Hugs, Gronda


  2. Dear lobotero,

    You have me beat.

    GOP MAGAs must feel that they’re in Heaven in Mississippi where culture war issues are nurtured and flourish, while everyone else is stuck dealing with high poverty rates, high violent crime rates, high number of areas with healthcare deserts, high number of high school dropouts, high incarceration rates, etc.

    Hugs, Gronda


    • Dear Roger,

      There are many Democrats who agree with you. Most Democratic Party leaders are above the age of 70 years old and they’re set in an entrenched way of conducting themselves. I for one, would love to see younger competent lawmakers in leadership positions who show a connection/ understanding of their constituents’ reality and who’re savvy in messaging ideas via social media.

      Hugs, Gronda

      Liked by 1 person

      • Exactly Gronda
        And raw-boned, not so much in stature but in determination to drag the party with them and take the fight to the current rabble which has polluted the Republican Party.
        To have something of the Robert Kennedy about them.
        I am sure there are those who fit that mark.

        Take care Gronda.

        Liked by 1 person


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