aside Republicans Beware: Another Republican Bastion Is About To Topple / Dallas, TX

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Dallas, Texas is another republican stronghold that is about to be toppled by democrats who are way outpacing republicans with early votes.

Republicans are sounding the alarms. (For candidate information see:  Texas primary 2018: find candidates running for statewide TX Tribune …

As per a 1/24/18 Texas Tribune report by Ryan Murphy, “Texas will hold its 2018 primary elections on March 6 — the first state in the country to do so — and hundreds of candidates across the state have filed to run for public office. Below are the candidates who have filed for the Democratic and Republican primaries for statewide, congressional and legislative offices and the State Board of Education.”

“If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two vote-getters will compete in a primary runoff on May 22.”

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On  February 26, 2018, Jackie Wang and Austin Bureau of the Dallas News penned the following report, “Texas Democrats’ early voting totals should ‘shock every conservative to their core,’ Abbott email says”

Excerpts:

Early voting for the March (2018) primary is more than half over, and Democrats have outpaced Republicans at the polls on each day.

Through Sunday in the 15 Texas counties with the most registered voters, 135,070 people had voted in the Republican primary and 151,236 in the Democratic. Compared with the first six days of early voting in 2014, Democratic turnout increased 69 percent, while Republicans saw a 20 percent increase.

The Democrats even surpassed their early voting totals from the 2016 primary —

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Democratic early voting turnout

The total number of in-person voters through six days of early voting.
County Feb. 2014 Feb. 2016 Feb. 2018
Harris 8,399 23,361 24,935
Dallas 12,907 17,229 19,829
Tarrant 7,955 12,266 10,379
Bexar 11,785 17,806 16,464
Travis 8,276 17,525 19,082
Collin 2,110 5,493 6,725
Denton 1,390 5,086 5,305

Republican early voting turnout

The total number of in-person voters through six days of early voting.
County Total 2014 Total 2016 Total 2018
Harris 19,249 32,641 22,394
Dallas 14,036 17,269 14,435
Tarrant 16,190 25,941 15,595
Bexar 13,407 16,604 12,652
Travis 5,881 8,428 7,289
Collin 9,267 16,031 13,226
Denton 7,659 14,444 9,213

Sen. Ted Cruz told a group of Republican voters this month that the left would “crawl over broken glass in November to vote. … We could get obliterated at the polls,” and other Republicans appear to be taking the Democratic surge seriously. Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign sent supporters an email Monday asking for donations to help him get out the vote, warning that the early voting numbers “should shock every conservative to their core.”

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Gov. Greg Abbott

“I’ll be blunt: Democrat voter turnout is surging statewide during Early Voting,” reads the email, using bold and italicized red print. The email states that the last time Democratic primary voters came out so strongly was in the 1990s, during a gubernatorial election cycle, and that Democrats are flipping seats in special elections across the country in Republican strongholds.

“We’ve seen a surge of liberal enthusiasm in deep red states like Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma,” the email says. “We had always hoped the liberal wave would never hit Texas, but these early voting returns aren’t encouraging so far.”

“Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said it’s interesting that Democrats are turning out at a rate more frequently seen in presidential election years. After looking at the relationship between primary and general election voters, he concluded that more votes in Democratic primaries correlate with more Democratic votes in general elections. But he said Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers to vote in the general election no matter how they voted in the primary.”
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Democrat Wendy Davis vs. Republican Greg Abbott

“Usually Republicans tend to run up the numbers in the general and are beating their opponents by big margins, so the relationship is not positive, but it is for Democrats,” Rottinghaus said. “Because the [Democrats’] enthusiasm is so high, you’re likely to see more support for Democrats in November and that’s likely to cut into the margins that they’ll lose to Republicans.”

They’re still going to lose, but they’re going to lose by smaller numbers. In red Texas, that is a win.”

Tariq Thowfeek, Texas Democratic Party communications director, said the increase in voter turnout since the last midterm election shows that Texas Democrats are “marching, organizing and most importantly, they are voting.”

Image result for photos of Gov. Greg Abbott and opponent

“Texans are fed up with Trump Republicans targeting our families, destroying our economic futures, and sabotaging our health care,” Thowfeek said in a written statement. “This year, we have a historical amount of candidates running in the Democratic primary. All of them believe this great state of Texas is worth fighting for.”

Harold Clarke, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, said that midterm elections are viewed as referendums on national politics, but that there’s no way to predict how what’s happening in Washington will affect races in the U.S. or in Texas.

“With the presence of Trump and the incredibly bitter politics in Washington, we just don’t know how that’s going to play out, but it could be influential in races across the country,” he said. “A strong dose of caution is in order right now.”

“Early voting runs through Friday (3/2/18).”